This post is so interesting to me, esp. the build-vs-buy spectrum.

As Dan notes, a lot of software is just...not very good. It either isn't upfront with flaws (as in the case of the Postgres -> Snowflake tool), has too much scope, or is abstracted poorly. Finding things to buy/use (as in the case of open source) can often eat a lot more time than you anticipate.

I've been dipping my toes into the JS ecosystem, and I keep bumping into the fact that using mentally cheap signals of quality (such as stars or DL counts) almost never indicates the quality of the thing itself. Winners seem to be randomly chosen, almost! The only way to assess is to read the code and try integrating it in.

I'd go farther to argue that the larger an ecosystem/market is, the more untrustworthy it behaves as a whole, simply due to the size, and the types of people attracted to it who want to get influence/money. See also: appliances that everyone needs.

For me, what this post illustrates most is the cost of information. By making hasty decisions, buyers are trading present time that might be spent shopping and comparing with future time spent struggling with the wrong product. They're discounting future time. But they're also doing something very rational -- they're making a decision to see what happens. That is, they're testing a hypothesis in the only way the market allows them to. Because people are bad at predicting their own future needs and behavior, and products are bundles of features whose importance is often unknown until you have to use them in high-dimensional futures. So buying is an empirical test.

Unfortunately, most consumers, recruiters and sometimes hiring managers are in a position of information assymetry vis a vis the people selling them something. That is, consumers rely on the self-reporting of vendors which purport to be experts.

https://vonnik.substack.com/p/the-expert-layman-problem

it's worse than that: nobody knows! how are we supposed to know if all the investment vendor A made in "reliability" of their appliance will actually work, or if it was just spent wastefully? And oops: past results don't reflect future outcomes, so you can't even really bank on a brand or a reputation: who knows if they just cut all Q/A staff? Welcome to entropy my friends!
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Entropy would be an upgrade since it would be indifferent to human concerns and manageable by statistics.

In contrast, product information invites people crafting lies for an advantage.

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Theory (and practice too) says that whatever was used in the proof-of-concept also stays. I mean you are right the initial thinking is to try and evaluate the fitness, but then you're already invested and unless the fitness is abysmal (it rarely is) everything else will be rounded and squared to fit the already implemented hole...
I think you are overthinking this.

Consumers rely on advertised claims being truthful.

It is not a matter of people badly predicting their own needs in most cases,though there are some that do have problems with this. It is a matter of people being misled by false information and trying to course correct after that information comes to light.

In a world where lies of omission and ambiguity towards borderline malice isn't considered an outright lie, but the sales reps do make those outright lies, and fake reviewers are not punished; there are real problems especially when the presumption is they aren't doing this (when in many markets this is exactly the standard behavior, and even academic studies show these things happen regularly).

Presumptions are just assumptions. Someone will take advantage of the grey unenforced area to push a product that may not be as professionally tested as they claim (or even finished). I've certainly run into a lot of these bait and switch types in my long professional career. The general term to describe this is snake-oil, and with the concentration of the market over time (increasing marketshare less participants), this only gets worse.

You’re giving pmarca too much credit: he’s just lying. Ya know, for personal profit.

Starving for talent my ass. His portfolio companies have infinite appetite for talent at zero cost, the minute one person wants one point of the upside they’re right back to starving for free talent.

Silicon Valley is the ultimate thought experiment in how wealth inequality plays out when resources are effectively inexhaustible. You don’t have to speculate about a post-scarcity world, this is a post-scarcity world. Ballers in SV ship a billion in revenue on a Tuesday. And yet somehow it’s Andreessen who ends up with all the chips at the end of the night.

These talking heads don’t have a plan, they don’t know what their next big payday will be, they don’t code, they don’t design, they don’t sell anything other than their own personal brand, they don’t add value.

They’re just patient and connected like zen spiders sitting on a web: they’ll learn first about a new big thing, they’ll be there immediately, their friends will wire up the deal in their favor, and they’ll do a TED talk a few years later about how making themselves absurdly wealthy with no real effort is somehow the future of humanity.

They openly advertise their glee at the (ridiculous) idea that soon some autoregressive language model will do all the work and the owners of NIDIA cards can just pocket it all.

In the 90s there was this meme of a yuppy couple doing a business from their couch via “The Information Superhighway”: outsource everything, all you need is a laptop, a glass of Chardonnay, and a lot of cheek.

pmarca should spend less time yakking about AI on Lex stream and more time learning AI on geohotz stream.

Most of “the people selling something” have little to no credibility, so their words have no value beyond a very low bar.

It would be different if it’s someone e.g. very high up at a F500 selling something, even with a huge information asymmetry, because it’s still possible to bank on their credibility. (Assuming they offer sufficiently many guarantees signed by sufficiently many people.)

Why is it different with a F500?

I could think of reasons both in favor and against, but I'm curious about your rationale.

Because of the credibility attached to the organization that’s then offered as part of the written signed guarantees…

When there’s little to no credibility to offer, such as when a newly hired intern is selling it, then of course it’s no different.

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>I've been dipping my toes into the JS ecosystem, and I keep bumping into the fact that using mentally cheap signals of quality (such as stars or DL counts) almost never indicates the quality of the thing itself. Winners seem to be randomly chosen, almost! The only way to assess is to read the code and try integrating it in.

I wish morep people understood the "Kardashian effect" as I like to call it -- the most popular thing is only most popular because it was already popular. I think in almost everything in my life and in every domain, #2 or #3 is better-suited (for my preferences and needs).

A year or two ago on HN I read a short blog post about omitting the word "best" from internet searches and being more specific in your criteria (e.g. "car with best resale value" instead of "best car"), and it has made my life and way of thinking a lot better

> I think in almost everything in my life and in every domain, #2 or #3 is better-suited (for my preferences and needs).

I like to explore alternatives to the most popular choice, but more often than not I end up back at the #1 consensus choice.

I have some friends who simply must pick the #2 or #3 choice in every domain. They always have an elaborate justification for why it’s better. From my point of view it seems driven by contrarianism.

Some times they pick some interesting alternatives that I explore. Most of the time they end up with also-ran purchases that die off. I joke that my one friend is the best predictor of impending product line cancellation that I know. He used a Zune when everyone went iPod. He went Windows Phone when iPhone and Android were front runners. He event eschewed Instagram for some other platform that he was sure was going to win the social media wars, but was actually so unnoteworthy that I can’t even remember the name right now.

Called the Harbinger Effect

  the same group of consumers has an outsized tendency to purchase all kinds of failed products, time after time, flop after flop
You really don't want these people as customers:

  In a key part of the study, the researchers studied consumers whose purchases flop at least 50 percent of the time, and saw pronounced effects when these harbingers of failure buy products. When the percentage of total sales of a product accounted for by these consumers increases from 25 to 50 percent, the probability of success for that product decreases by 31 percent. And when the harbingers buy a product at least three times, it’s really bad news: The probability of success for that product drops 56 percent
https://news.mit.edu/2015/harbinger-failure-consumers-unpopu...
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And then you get sales channels designed specifically to sell short-term cheap thing to such folks, which reminds me of As Seen On TV.
> As Seen On TV.

Always a great cue to instantly stop considering a product.

"Wasn't successful on TV"
Sounds like a market opportunity to me!
Fascinating (and, dare I say it, pretty funny too).
Cause, effect.
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I'm somewhat this way, but more than somewhat when it comes to TV shows. I think something like 80% of my favorite shows were cancelled early. Firefly, Freaks & Geeks, Shadow & Bone, ...

Perhaps I should set up a Patreon where people can give me money to not watch things.

(Admittedly, this may be a mathematical artifact. Cancelled shows have less opportunity to decline in quality. At one point, The Dragon Prince was my all-time favorite show. I haven't even bothered to watch the last several seasons. It is even possible that the people cancelling the show are able to accurately predict that something is going to go downhill in the future, though I doubt it.)

For what it's worth, I watched the show while working/cleaning and the later seasons felt pretty decent. Its seventh and (I believe) final season is premiering in two days. I can definitely feel the influence of Aaron Ehasz, and although I've probably aged out of the target demographic, the ATLA-like worldbuilding/character writing is nostalgic. Not bad to have on in the background IMO if you ever get curious about what happens.
My life, growing up, was: lockblox (v legos), construx (v meccano), vectrex (v nintendo), macintosh (in 1985!), etc. My dad is epically contrarian.
Oh lord. My father also always seemed to pick gifts that appealed more to him and his impulsivity.

I got the vectrex too, and an Atari STM I think, it wasn't quite the same as an Atari STFM. When I wanted to learn piano/keyboard, he bought me a frickin keytar, a Yamaha SHS-10, instead of lessons or a simple full size like I asked for.

Instead of a gift certificate to get some clothes, he got me a gimmicky Canon SLR that ate batteries and that I couldn't afford to develop the film.

He was a very strange person. Sometimes incredibly funny and generous, other times hateful and selfish.

Edited to add: sorry for the trauma dump. I have no idea what point, if any, that I was originally trying to make.

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All things considered, it's better to have a strange father than a boring/typical one.
*your experience may vary
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Well I can understand your father better than you in this case. I bet time will come when you'll start appreciating what he did for you. Fathers are not like mothers, dude... Geez - dreaming for clothes and not appreciating a Canon SLR instead.. The time and the maturity will help you appreciate at some point you've had an amazing father.
Added context: my father didn't pay child support. I wanted clothes because all I had was school uniform and old hand me downs.

I would have liked to have eaten something other than boiled potatoes and peas in my birthday. I would have liked to go to the ice rink with my friends. Instead I got a camera I couldn't afford to use.

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I'm there with ya, bud. There should be a term for this — for those of us in our situation — and we should be able to unite!
"My dad gave me a gold brick. It's sooo heavy."
Those gifts listed were the few times I saw him. He didn't pay child support, so I grew up hungry. I just wanted a normal childhood.
What the hell does that have to do with this topic? The problem you describe, now, is totally different and it wouldn't matter what the gifts were, whether they were things most people valued or things that ended up being flops or things you liked or didn't.
I might be one of these people. I don't have to pick #2 or #3, but I will give them a thorough reviewing as I will critically for #1. Sometimes I just want something different for the sake of it, but I want it to at least do the job reasonably well. Something about a fork in the road and taking the one less travelled by...

Since that can often mean extra effort/support, I won't recommend such things to others. I'll try to pick something that will be the least trouble for them.

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Fascinating observation, and now that you point it out I know several people like this. It's like they are pathologically contrarian consumers. Then they often complain about the suboptimal situations they get themselves into.

Not to say that every #1 popular item is always the best, but definitely a lot more than never.

> I like to explore alternatives to the most popular choice, but more often than not I end up back at the #1 consensus choice.

Popularity is only a decent proxy for consensus if people actually look at the other options. I've been burned by trusting this metric more times than I can count.

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Hah, plus one on this one. Once I went as far as buying a French car famous for the suspension problems due to the terrible quality of pavement in my country, mainly to prove everyone was wrong about the unreliability claims (and it was unreliable btw). I guess I was often feeling I was outsmarting the dumb crowd... got me screwed so many times.
[TL;DR: Hindsight is 20/20, but if you did a good job with your requirements and you had good information about if a product meets each one, then it doesn't always matter that other products which didn't meet the requirements as completely eventually win out.]

I may be one of these types, but at least in many of my cases, I don't really know that it mattered in the end?

Maybe after a review I pick something that didn't win in the long term or even eventually exited the market because it wasn't popular enough. But, my requirements are almost never strictly that it's popular. What I end up with does typically do the job very well for the time I have it, and after few years the requirements may change or the need may go away completely. If one of my requirements is that a device is built with metal instead of plastic, maybe I never have to replace it.

Another example: Your friend had a Zune, but then I'm guessing they moved on to a phone, [because phones eventually] became better music players. If the Zune did all the things they wanted while they had it, especially if they had a unique need, maybe were happy with it. (Although, that isn't necessarily always the case.)

This doesn't seem quite as applicable for selecting software, though. Popularity often is part of what I look at there, because I want to know dependencies won't need replacing and support will be available. Additionally, you can potentially work with the developers so the selection iterates and grows into your requirements.

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> I think in almost everything in my life and in every domain, #2 or #3 is better-suited (for my preferences and needs).

Depending on the domain, there's a good chance #1 may also be a sponsored result.

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I have friends who routinely go for #2 or #3 (occasionally even further down). The typical justification they gave is that one's paying a lot of price premium/marketing cost for #1, whereas with #2/3 one gets comparable or slightly worse quality for a lot cheaper.
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Part of the problem, though, is that winners of the popularity contest get more support from the rest of the ecosystem, which doesn't take that long to turn into a moat.
> "Kardashian effect" as I like to call it

Alternatively, the Mickey Mouse effect.

The stars is the issues solved to issues open ratio.
This really depends. Some examples where the number one choice is IMO justified:

- ZFS. There are other filesystems that provide checksumming, CoW, etc. but ZFS is a proven solution in this space. I am happy work on BRTFS and bcache continues but they are not yet there.

- Debian. There are distros that do things better and differently but nobody has quite as smooth an experience, hardware support, security, and software availability all in one package. Alternatives are really good so it really says something about Debian that it is as popular as it is.

- ssh. There are some alternatives but when was the last time you heard an argument made in their favor?

I could go on but hopefully I’ve made my point. Sometimes the standard choice is the right now. And yes I know me picking Debian as a good distro can start a flame war :)

It makes me really appreciate tools that DO work. Things like: the Linux kernel, Vim, PostgreSQL, the Golang compiler, etc. Interestingly, the aforementioned tools come from different ecosystems, and levels of financial backing, but all of them have been reliable tools for me for many years, all are complex, and yes... they all have bugs, but of acceptable severity and manageability.
For me the most interesting case is HeidiSQL. I find it easily the most useful SQL GUI client, but it crashes pretty frequently, but not frequently enough for me to stop using it over the alternatives.

I often wondered how to strike the balance right on these things, since apparently all options can lead to success.

Might depend on the quality of crashes. Losing hours or days of work would quickly sour me. HP RGS crashes, twice or thrice daily are just 'meh' - reconnect and nothing - but 15 seconds and typing auth tokens - is lost - maybe 'flow' but I've become resilient there.
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Are you actually applying some objective standard for "works" here? Or are you just deciding that the bugs in things you like are "of acceptable severity and manageability" and the bugs in things you don't like aren't?
Sure, using all the aforementioned tools for over a decade without any bugs that prevented me from completing a task.
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Right, but which bugs prevent you from completing a task is probably a function of how much you like those tools and/or how useful you find their capabilities. Generally people get used to large classes of bugs in their tools and work around them without even consciously thinking about it.
More directly, I have never encountered a bug with any of these apps, aside from Linux kernel panics due to buggy drivers, which was almost always with long tail hardware back in the 90s.
I have thought many times about building a shrine to Postgres in my apartment.
Basically everything Dan posts online is deeply insightful, fearlessly honest, thoroughly footnoted, and dryly humorous.

I think even he is a little averse to straight up saying it out loud (we’ve discussed it many times): software and product outcomes have gone to shit because we don’t enforce anti-trust law already on the books, let alone update it in light of 50 Moore doublings.

You want a smart phone? Here are two vendors with the same App Store vig at payday loan shark rates. You want to rent cloud compute? Here are several vendors where the 4th place vendor charges the same as the first place vendor. You build disruptive encrypted messaging app? You better live on a boat and watch your six like Jason Bourne Mr. Marlinspike.

Is it even a little surprising that everything from Google search to Netflix is a shittier version of itself ten years ago? There’s no incentive to make it compelling!

this is a tangent for sure but I doubt you can find payday loans that lend for 30% APR (Apple Store takes 30%). People really have no idea what realistic rates are for people with bad credit. If you have a sub 580 credit score the average APR for unsecured loans is 100%.
> payday loans that lend for 30% APR (Apple Store takes 30%)

You have to flip the percentage. The fraction of money that goes to the intended destination after a 30% tax is 70%. The fraction of money that goes to the intended destination with a one year 100% APR loan is 50%.

Though there's no reason to assume a year in particular. If you take a six month loan at 100% APR, you have to pay back 141%. Paying back 141% is equivalent to a 29% tax. And if the best comparison is "six months of compounding payday loans" that's even worse than the initial comment suggested.

I think that we should either refer people to serious treatments of bond pricing or say nothing on the matter: it’s very easy to confuse everyone with “sort of” explanations of important math.
I was being generous to the App Store vendors.

The better analogy is Tony Soprano with a migraine.

But Tony Soprano sucks the blood out of pre-existing economic activity while Apple created a brand-new playing field for billions of $ of new activity, complete with the hardware platform and app hosting.
At what point does a "new" playing field become an "existing" playing field? Surely they don't deserve an outsized cut forever, and we're more than 16 years in.

Their hardware sales shouldn't entitle them to a cut of the software used on it, and the hosting is not worth particularly much.

Of course they do? Just because they created a platform long ago doesn’t make it public property all of a sudden?

The value of their platform is in both hardware and software by the way.

All property is public property in the sense that the duly constituted government informed by the wishes of the electorate has an iron monopoly on the use of force and in this case enough force to make anyone do anything.

Some internet platform thing stops being socially useful from competitive innovation and starts being an extractive rent?

The public has the power to dictate terms to the people running it. It’s a power the public hasn’t exercised a lot recently, but it’s only been about 30 years since LA 92, a little longer to Watts and Detroit.

It would be a grave error to mistake the public’s kindness for weakness.

> Of course they do? Just because they created a platform long ago doesn’t make it public

If that's what you think matters above all else, would you support a literal mafia group taking a cut if they had started the market in that particular city?

> public property

It's a market, not property.

But Apple owns none of the iPhones, so why do they get a say?

> The value of their platform is in both hardware and software by the way.

They shouldn't be artificially tied together by DRM.

> If that's what you think matters above all else, would you support a literal mafia group taking a cut if they had started the market in that particular city?

This is called being a "landlord" and it's actually completely legal.

You buy some land, you build a mall, you invite shopkeepers to set up shops and sell to customers visiting the mall, and the shopkeepers give you $$$$ every month, forever. If they ever stop paying, they lose their shops.

Even though it's shopkeepers that draw customers to the mall in the first place, and even though the shopkeepers are covering all the maintenance costs of the mall, you get paid anyway. Because you own the mall.

So if a mafia group created a market, took a cut from every shop, and threw out anyone who wouldn't pay them their cut? That's actually a legitimate business.

That doesn't quite hold when talking about a piece if hardware someone can own outright, like a phone. If the mall allowed shop owners to buy the store they'd have to function more like an HOA, collecting dues rather than rent.

That analogy still doesn't quite hold as you legally agree to pay HOA dues when buying the property and agree the property can seized eventually if you don't pay. No such agreement is made between phone owners and Apple, Apple just sells you the thing and puts some of it's functionality behind ongoing fees.

That's the point - the mall doesn't allow shop owners to buy their store. And Google doesn't let you own your phone outright. If they did, they'd have to give up that recurring revenue stream!
I don't like the app store model at all, but it's a stretch to call it rent. Google can't repossess your phone simply because you don't buy any apps.

I have heard the rent argument made for property tax and it holds better there. Own your house outright but fall behind on property taxes and the government can take your house and land - now that feels a lot more like rent.

Analogies between physical commerce and what the Cartel is up to are offensively wrong by 19 orders of magnitude or so.

There is no useful analogy from an idyllic high street with people shopping at leisure to what happens when you give sociopaths unbounded compute and legal carte blanche.

I struggle with this as a meme and I have a more and less charitable theory. My more charitable theory is that people never learned finance seriously. My less charitable theory is that people stand to benefit personally and are indifferent what it costs, as long as someone else pays the cost.

None of these concepts are in the bedrock law of the land: shopping mall, home owner’s association? Which amendment protects HOAs?

It is completely possible to change all of this, and while we should deliberate thoughtfully before making sweeping change, I mistrust anyone who just asserts dubious shit as bedrock laws of nature.

Maybe we’ve got a pretty sickening system composed of dubiously legal and strictly unethical status quos and it’s time to make some changes at arbitrary effort and cost.

I’d contend that the term “rentier” is more general and basically all economics from Smith and Ricardo up to Art Laffer was no big lobby for extractive rent seeking.

Profit margins and low-friction competition go hand in hand, if one endorses the one without demanding the other?

I’ll show you a pretty small-minded person with distressingly little empathy.

A legitimate business created an asset. There’s no good reason to believe they should cede ownership simply because 16 years have elapsed.

> But Apple owns none of the iPhones, so why do they get a say?

This is an interesting point. But the key thing is people buy iPhones in part because of the walled garden, and Apple bakes it into the price. Without that App Store revenue, those $999 iPhones would simply see a price increase.

At one time we had somewhat reasonable sounding protections via copyright and patent.

Today that’s so captured that Mickey Mouse is still in copyright and insulin for diabetics costs more than the saline it’s in.

It defies both the law as written and the human sense that wrote it to advocate for unproductive rent seeking: sixteen years? With a few point patches along the way? Thirty percent.

The Europeans find it ridiculous, the FTC finds it ridiculous, anyone who likes innovation finds it ridiculous.

But it’s mostly ridiculous because history is unambiguous on this point: you tell the peasants to eat cake long enough and you’ll swing from a dockyard crane.

Let’s seek to avoid that kind of thing?

> Without that App Store revenue, those $999 iPhones would simply see a price increase.

Why would that happen instead of Apple taking less profit overall?

I suspect that Apple's pricing for phones is based on primarily on what the customer is willing to pay rather than on the amount needed to be profitable.

The demand is not for Apple to give up ownership of their own store.

And if they baked the price into the phones, at least that would be honest. But they likely wouldn't increase the phone price by that much.

If you think they're being dishonest by betting on future app revenue from iPhone users... buy an Android.
I assume you mean "buy an Android and do nothing else", but in that case I think it's unreasonable to suggest I'm not allowed to want companies to be honest 99.9% of the time, and I can only express it once every few years while I'm choosing what phone to buy.

If you didn't mean that, I'm not sure why you gave me that advice. I'll keep it in mind but I'd prefer we keep the discussion focused on what Apple is doing and whether it should be accepted by the general public, both in terms of popularity and legality. And Google too, because this discussion started about both app stores.

On economic activity? Apple has generated a lot in the last few decades.

On human welfare? Every other day a new study comes out on the destructive force that heavily marketed smart phones represent: Phillip Morris and Enron put together couldn’t collapse the birth rate in a nation.

This debate is about economic activity as a good a priori. A lot of people assume that.

Some are ill-informed: they haven’t read the designer of GDP talk about the perils of GDP as a metric.

A small few know how mathematically comical the fucking Laffer Curve is and who thought it up and where and prey on the good intentions of the former group.

They’re going to catch a guillotine no matter how much caution I or anyone else advocates for.

"Catch a guillotine"? (!!)

Collapsing the birthrate?

Human welfare?

We're talking about the App Store my friend. You need to take it easy on the ideology.

No we’re talking about Apple and the ostensible economic impact as opposed to the humane assessment of outcomes friend, and we can talk about anything from child labor in Foxconn factories to union busting at Apple stores to parts pairing around right to repair before we even get into how fucking illegal the App Store shit is.
Have you "de-apple'd" your life in anyway so that you're at least not helping to finance the illegal app store shit?
I’m rotating things out of walled-garden mega ecosystems and into e.g. Proton.

It’s not done in a day but I’m on track to finish in 2025.

Nice, thanks. Making similar strides myself. Moved over to a Framework machine (which has been surprisingly pleasant) with Linux (also not too bad as a desktop OS in 2024) - coming from an M1 Pro. Photo's is my current sticking point though, do I really push everything into Google photos...
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Endorsing this, because an upvote is invisible. Also consider: is it the phone that’s the problem, or is it TikTok/Twitter/Instagram/whatever? And even for them, is it the app itself, or is it the other people?

The problem with X is… the other people who use X.

Anti-trust laws, and their enforcement, are only feasible in the very-large-monopoly space. Even in smaller monopolies, where not a lot of a money is moving around, you'll get a crappy product. Do you see Linda Khan going after Workday?
The “Magnificent Seven” represent like 25-30% of the S&P 500 by cap.

We’re not in the “very large” regime?

Payday loan shark rates?

> payday loan shark rates

Do you know what the retail markup on things you buy in your local shop?

If a product costs $1 from the producer, the distributer sells it to the retail shop at $2. And the retailer sells it at $4.

The retailer has to pay a lot in shipping and stocking that a digital storefront doesn't. More importantly, the retailer doesn't prevent me from buying it directly for $1 or $2.
Indeed. There is a nascent alliance forming between socialists like myself and libertarians like many I respect: a “market” that has profit margins to increase prices but little or no competition to put downward pressure is a despotism. It’s a vampiric wealth transfer on the scale of great power GDP and many of us have fucking had it.

If you can hear this, you are the resistance.

>I think even he is a little averse to straight up saying it out loud (we’ve discussed it many times): software and product outcomes have gone to shit because we don’t enforce anti-trust law already on the books, let alone update it in light of 50 Moore doublings.

None of the examples of crappy software from the OP are Magnificent 7 companies, are they? Those companies seem to be capable of hiring the best talent.

A critical input into the build vs buy decision is whether your company is actually capable of building. Suppose Dan was advising the company that made the crappy Postgres/Snowflake sync software on whether to build vs buy a supporting component. Given that their main product is already crap, can they really be expected to build a better supporting component in-house? Seems like they might as well buy, and focus their energy on fixing the main product.

Dan advocates vertical integration here, and elsewhere says engineers get better compensation from FAANG than startups. This suggests that big companies made up of lots of talented engineers have natural efficiencies, relative to the alternatives.

A natural interpretation of "antitrust" is: break companies up into their smaller business units. That basically replaces an in-house "build" relationship with an inter-business "buy" relationship. So it seems antithetical to the OP.

Dan, if you're reading this, I encourage you to write a reply here on HN tearing me apart, like you did to all the other HN commenters.

Your build/buy analysis is pretty astute if you accept the axioms: when reasonable people disagree firmly it’s almost always their starting assumptions.

I’ll challenge the notion that enriching mediocre people at the expense of society is either reasonable or useful. Enlightenment ideals around the sanctity of personal property fall apart when you extrapolate that to millions of people in passive index funds who don’t vote on governance.

Neither the United States Constitution nor the Universal Declaration of Human Rights nor the Geneva Conventions have any protections for rent seeking assholes as a bloc.

Don’t shoot the messenger: in my reading of history either one group backs down or the other slaughters them.

I’m lobbying for the peaceful resolution.

Your analysis seems really handwavey. Of course, rent seeking is not considered particularly valuable. But some amount is inevitable. You haven't been very specific about the rule change that you think would reduce rent seeking, or why you believe it would be helpful.
I see very little downside in an extreme form of campaign finance reform where basically any interaction between industry and legislature is deemed briber and treason and is a capital crime.

I’ll also advocate for a punitive wealth tax: not to raise revenue (who cares) but to cripple billionaires who aspire to nation state power. 50 million seems like plenty to live in arbitrary luxury but not enough to buy policy. Seize everything above that.

Today this is a comment. It will become a proposal. Then it will become an ultimatum.

What happens after that is unclear. War possibly.

>basically any interaction between industry and legislature

If legislature doesn't talk to industry before regulating, expect lots of incompetent, ignorant, economy-crippling regulation.

You don't have to change anything in the US if you want this. Just move to Germany.

>cripple billionaires

You might be able to persuade Trump of this, actually, if you sell it as increasing his power over the other billionaires.

More seriously -- It sounds like you have a strong desire to live in an authoritarian country, where the state possesses unchallenged primacy over its citizens. I support your right to do that. There are many available to choose from.

I'll bet if you do enough research, you can even identify an authoritarian country which also has crippling regulations. That should be perfect.

One example is Google maps. There are two ecosystems: Google and Apple. Apple is kinda meh but lacks user information (ie: menu photos for a restaurant). Google maps has become simply horrendous but here is the catch: There is no third viable alternative. There used to be Foursquare for finding stuff nearby but that's gone. It's a very legitimate market. Businesses want to be found. Users want to find information and legitimate ratings. Money can be made as Google is monetizing Maps.

Sometimes I wonder if the free market has stopped working.

Markets sometimes experience market failure: markets are a great tool but they’re no more divinely infallible than any other human institution.

High-paying work in the US right now and software in particular is in a bit of a doldrums where the locally useful needles are like, friction to leave the platform, and the absolute limit of remnant ad load before people throw their phone at a wall, and taking a big cut out of everything, and lying constantly about what foundation models can and can’t do and shit.

I suspect it feels this way because this is a pretty exceptional run where the Valley just doesn’t have shit for the LPs. It was Web3 and then the Apple Watch (or vice versa) and then it was WeWork and then it was the Metaberse and now it’s “AI”.

But it will get better: dumb, lazy, corrupt management eventually gets rotated out. This crop is really hanging on by their fingernails, but the writing is on the wall.

2GIS is fantastic, it's light years ahead of both on map quality, and has very detailed information about companies, various points of interest, restaurants, etc. But it only covers a few ex-Soviet countries and is very unlikely to come to your side of the world under the current political climate.
How, specifically, has Google Maps become horrendous?

>Sometimes I wonder if the free market has stopped working.

The "free market" means people have the freedom to compete. It doesn't mean they are guaranteed do so. You might as well blame society for getting lazy and complacent.

It’s got the same disease as the rest of Google? What gained monumental trust by being a useful and accessible library of high-quality information is now a place to shove higher oCPM because fuck everyone?

I really admire Google over time, it’s a special place that still has engineers you can’t find many places.

But once they let climber TPMs write their own performance review by just ransacking the dwell? An even worse crop (Altman, Amodei) was inevitable.

Can you give me three recent instances where you were trying to accomplish something with Google Maps, and you weren't able to because it's gone to shit?

Without concrete examples your comment is just vibes.

You don't seem to be arguing that Google is a bad company actually. You're arguing that it was once a good/altruistic company, and now it's more ordinary. This strikes me as an entitled attitude. A company behaves in a good/altruistic way, people get used to it, they don't show appreciation, but they do start cursing if the altruism diminishes even a little. "No good deed goes unpunished"

"The "free market" means people have the freedom to compete."

The "free market" means nothing as nothing like that existed at any point of human history.

Like anything, the term “free market” fluctuates in semantics like hemlines.

But “the effective freedom to compete” is a reasonable TLDR on versions of it that lead to peace and prosperity.

The “money for nothing” kind of capitalism? That kind gets regimes and their apologists killed in my reading of history.

I’ll admonish you to endorse a better plan.

The reason we like the free market is that there is guaranteed to be competition in a free market and that's guaranteed to lower prices and improve features, which are not things that happened in communism. If those things aren't actually true then why do we like the free market - how's it any better than communism?
"Guaranteed to happen" vs "doesn't happen at all" is a false dichotomy.

If you think a company is doing a bad job of serving its customers, compete with it.

If you're right, and you can do a better job of serving those customers, you are likely to become rich.

If you aren't interested in competing, maybe you don't actually believe it is possible to do much better.

I agree that in principle, there can be a role for the government in removing structural barriers to competition. I haven't seen that role particularly well-articulated in this thread, though.

> Here are several vendors where the 4th place vendor charges the same as the first place vendor.

That, uh, is kind of what you expect in a competitive commodity market, isn't it? I don't think that's the example you want. (No disagreement about app stores).

You raise a good point but I think it’s actually a great argument for the corruption. Modern cloud compute is priced at such absurd margins that AWS subsidizes the price dumping of the whole Amazon retail business: there’s a reason Jassey is second only to Bezos in clout.

When vendors 1-5 are all running 20, 30, sometimes 50 percent margins while their share varies from like 40% to like 5%?

That’s called price fixing.

The high profit margins, if those figures are correct, are a much more compelling argument than merely having similar prices. Those can be deceptive too, but I haven't looked into it...
They’re both worthy of scrutiny. The combination is pretty damning.
Luckily both the US and EU are working on breaking Google's app store monopoly. Though the US might stop that if Google manages to convince the new top guy that it's anti-woke.
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Many of the best engineers that I have worked with over the years have a discerning constitution which seems to innately allow them to identify high quality software, which is essentially a matter of taste.

The problem is that this disposition is not the norm for a technician, which is why I tend to prefer hiring and training engineers that are artistic, creative, and obsessive.

I once thought the same thing. Over time I realized those engineers weren’t necessarily good at picking the right thing up front. They were good at making it work despite any deficiencies.
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I would argue that our whole civilization works because people either accept deficiencies or make up for the deficiencies on their own.
Software will continue to be garbage until we expect more out of it. And that extends to the people writing it. This isn't a profession that is kind to people who want to do things by the book.

We incinerate the book every few years, but the fundamentals remain the same.

Keep on fighting the good fight
I've seen this same problem with many so-called low-code/no-code application creation tools (e.g. Betty Blocks). In their quest to cover every use case, they cover none of them well, forcing compromises and creating more real-code work for the actual application developers whose systems have to be accessed by these tools.

It would have been quicker and cheaper if the company just hired more actual developers to integrate properly with existing systems (and resulted in more featureful, less buggy applications), but the prospect of paying lower salaries for less qualified people to do the same end result (as promised by the slopware vendors) seems to be a siren song of sorts to management.

You're missing the point of low-code/no-code solutions. Those are intended to sold to executives who don't actually understand software, as proven by a prior history of buying other crap software. Whether it actually works or saves any money is irrelevant.
Low code platforms are highly effective solution to part a fool from their money
> Winners seem to be randomly chosen, almost!

Winners are mostly chosen by effort put into marketing, not product quality.

My utterly cynical take is that the way to win with software is to put as much money and effort into marketing and sales as possible and as little as possible into the actual product. Especially B2B seems to do this a lot in practice because that software is bought based on checklist items and demos by salespeople.
You're starting to realize why eng is a cost center.

The goal of the business it to make money, not make a great product.

They will make the product better if and only if it will lead to greater profits.

If you can make more money hiring more sales and marketing people to sell a broken product than hiring more engineers to fix the product, you're going to hire more sales and marketing people.

I...can't fault this, as much as I hate it. This explains so much.

More broadly: products are the way to make profits, but they aren't the purpose of the venture.

So don’t work at a company that sells a software product to other businesses. Work at a company that has a business of its own, which runs more efficiently when the software is better.
You're still in a cost center.
That's an observation opposite to mine. Having worked at several B2B and several B2C companies, I've found that the latter products were better and more interesting because they served an actual need. Sure, the B2C apps may have had better UX and design and maybe even more flashy tech, but they were frequently engaging in dark patterns and generally not that concerned about whether the users were actually benefiting (e.g. a language learning app with no research into how well users learn, but a big marketing budget and all sorts of conversion and retention metrics).
I don't think this is a cynical take. I think it is the rational take. Anyone not doing this is going to be outcompeted by those who are.
I also like that we try to build 'ratings' sites that end up being coopted as yet another ad sales vector.
Larry Ellison has that cynical take too, and it made him rich.
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It's a balancing act. You may or may not agree that Oracle products are a good value but they generally have some good engineering behind them. Oracle also puts a ton of money into sales and marketing.
I think it's been true for some time that Oracle Database has largely been in maintenance mode, with relatively little new engineering or refactoring being done and more resources devoted to sales, marketing, and of course license compliance enforcement. "More lawyers on staff than engineers", as the anecdote goes.
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"Don't make the mistake of anthropomorphizing Larry Ellison."
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Have definitely someone say, "well I tried Drizzle because the creators are good at shitposting on X."

I do not understand that at all, but maybe my reality is just substantially less mediated by "the conversation" that I don't get it. (Drizzle is fine BTW)

I think that's actually not unusual or even wildly unreasonable shopping behavior in a market where:

1. Many if not most "customers" (JS devs) don't understand how to evaluate quality deeply (thus, quality signals aren't trustworthy, making evaluation more difficult and resulting in further acceptance of using unevaluated products)

2. There's an overwhelming number of choices, with deprecation, replacement, and eclipsing all being fairly common - potentially even year-to-year

You kinda just have to try stuff out and work with what you've got.

What I translate that to is: "Drizzle is top of mind for me". If they tried Drizzle and it was shit, they would likely look for something else.
Winners are chosen because they tend to solve a problem easily for the average person. 99% of people don't care if it's written in rust or has the proper abstractions. It's, "I need to do X" and the winner does X easily. People here are very out of touch.
It's a little worse than that. Given two products that seem to do the same job on paper, the one with glossier marketing will win even if it is an unreliable pile of crap in practice.
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Counter-example: all the people that were using CentOS 6/7 instead of RHEL. Not that Red Hat did tons of marketing, but it was more than zero.
Not a fair example because one was free and the other came with a monetary cost and a lot of friction in addition to that.
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People weren't choosing CentOS on technical merit. CentOS had glossier marketing than RHEL did.
One was free
If no one hears about something, no one will use or buy it. It doesn't matter how well it does by any metric. Marketing will always matter.
Cost as well. Most people don't want to invest in a high quality product unless it's something that is clearly miles above the competition (e.g. Vitamix, Herman Miller or Leap Chair, etc.)
sometimes having a higher quality product makes the marketing easier
Or someone paid someone $5 and got thousands of stars
The JS community has no sense of quality. The community doesn't value things that are well abstracted or work well. I dread every moment I have to work in JS because everything is so badly done.
A lot of people blame the JavaScript language itself but, the longer I'm around in the world of web development, the more I think that the quality of JavaScript applications is dictated by the economics of said applications.

Off the top of my head, the best software I use seems to fall into two categories:

- Closed source software that requires buying a license to use

- Open source software that is specifically made for developers and promises to do one job well

Whatever falls in the middle of those two categories tends to suffer, in my experience.

If you think about it, web based software tend not to fit neatly into either category. Most of them are the following:

- Closed source but are either too cheap or are free

- Open source but promises to do way too many things, and also too cheap or free (describes a lot of frameworks and design tools)

Web technology and JavaScript became the dumpster slut of software ecosystems. The end users are not given a big enough reason to pay for them adequately or at all, product owners care little about quality and reliability because it's way too easy to get a zillion low quality users to look at ads, and the barrier of entry for new JavaScript programmers is so low that it's full of people who never think philosophically about how code should be written.

> Web technology and JavaScript became the dumpster slut of software ecosystems.

I think an additional problem with the JavaScript ecosystem specifically is external resources are extremely easy to access and their cost is usually borne by end user resources. Therefore they're too tempting for many developers to avoid. Unfortunately the runtime environment of the end user rarely matches that of the developers and seemingly "cheap" resource access at development/test time isn't cheap for the end user.

JavaScript is happy to pull in some library hosted on some third party service at runtime. For the developer/tester this ends up cached by the browser and/or at the edge of the CDN. A developer may also have topologically close CDN endpoints. This inspires them to pull willy nilly from third party libraries because to them they're cheap to access and they save time writing some utility function.

The same goes for CSS, APIs, or media resources. With JavaScript the delivery is a client issue and costs can be pushed entirely onto the client. If pulling in an external resource(s) costs a developer non-trivial money to store and serve they'll put more effort into tree shaking or other delivery optimizations. They may omit it entirely.

I think this massively contributes to the LEGO piece construction of a lot of web apps. It also contributes to performance robbing things like tag managers that insert a bunch of incongruent plug-ins only at runtime from an unbounded number of sources.

I agree with the first statement and I want to point out that PHP had the exact same issues with its ecosystem. its getting better but not by much.
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Wtf is a dumpster slut? Are the product owners in this metaphor pimps?
Ehh... not sure I want to go in graphic detail here, but my understanding is that term denotes cheap and low grade jetsam. I think it was a more common term on the internet back when I was in high school in 2005.
I agree that many Frontend libraries are pretty intimidating to step into if you don't have a background in it.

Don't agree that JS community is bad, it is the largest community of any language by far, and it has the most money invested into it by a huge margin. There is a lot of trash but there is some seriously good stuff, and you can find 10+ packages trying to do pretty much anything you can think of.

When it's "the largest community of any language by far" - which is true enough - having "some good stuff" is a very low bar. The dev culture around JS and Node is notorious for cranking out poorly written libraries.

And yes, you can find 10+ packages to do pretty much anything... of which 8 are abandoned and no longer work on up-to-date Node versions or depend on other packages with known vulnerabilities.

Do all the high quality folks just leave the JS community beyond a certain threshold?
JavaScript has the unfortunate situation of having years upon years of terrible standard library design, leading to people building lots of small libraries on top of those libraries to get things that were basic functionality in other languages.

Then people started stacking more and more things on top of those libraries, creating a giant dependency morass of microdependencies that larger frameworks are now build on top of. And because all these frameworks do things just different enough from each other, every larger library that a dev would want to integrate with those frameworks now needs a specialized version to work with those frameworks.

In most languages, if you want to know how something works, you can usually dig into your dependency tree and by the time you hit the stdlib's optimization spaghetti/language internals, you'll probably have figured out what's causing your snag/what the library is expecting out of you. In JavaScript, you hit the dependency morass and have to give up. Most competent devs then decide to pick another language.

You can write very legible JavaScript these days, even without a framework, but it looks nothing like JavaScript used in a framework.

The other language I know of with this issue is, ironically, Rust.

Please explain the rust angle?
Similar "lots of microdependencies" issue, born in Rusts case from the desire to keep a conservatively sized standard library. It's a smaller problem in the sense that Rust has stronger API contracts as opposed to the absolute disaster that NodeJS is, but in terms of code comprehension you hit a similar dependency morass.

The one thing salvaging Rust for now is a lack of similar frameworks, but who knows how long that will last.

The implication is that Rust's conservatism regarding what is blessed to go into the standard library sets up a similar dynamic.
Or start making their own stuff and ignoring most of the community.
After a couple of years of doing this, you've built up a backlog of your own, bespoke library code that makes you into a wizard. People are amazed at what you can do and perplexed with how little time it takes you to do it.

Nobody else can understand how it's built, but for some reason that's not their problem? It's not like they're taking the time to understand how React is built, either. But as soon as you do something on your own, whoooa buddy. Cowboy programmer alert. It's not good engineering if it's a single, coherent, vertically integrated system. It's only good engineering if it's a mishmash of half-solutions teetering on top of each other.

You are about 4 years behind the curve, everyone uses JS Frameworks that bundle most of the libraries you will need for general dev together now.

I don't understand why people get so up in arms over npm modules, as if you could stand up code that does the same things in another language without having to manage dependencies.

Because most of the stuff in NPM sucks. I'm not going to keep going back to a store that has sold me nothing but shit so far just on your promise that somewhere, buried deep in the back, is a not-turd.
Rubygems does an excellent job of this.
In another language, much of what you go to npm for would be in the standard library.
So you never work in teams with other people again?
This feels like a knee-jeek false dichotomy. But in a sense, it's kind of right. I didn't work in teams anymore. I manage them.

I still do a lot of programming. And I expect my developers to be competent enough to read other people's code and figure out how it works, what it does, how to use it, based on the tests and plenty of extant examples.

I don't want developers who can only be productive in libraries that everyone else's is using/posting YouTube tutorials on/feeding LLM training corpus'.

The problem with adopting other people's software is that you have to make it work for your purposes, all while accepting it was only ever originally designed for their purposes. And if that's open source and you contribute to it, then you have to make sure all your changes don't break other people's work.

But with my own libraries, I can break anything I want. I have, like, 5 projects using them. It's not a big deal to discover an architectural problem and completely refactor it away to a newer, better design, propagating the change to all the others that use it in fairly short order.

And I don't have to argue with anyone about it. I can just do it and get the work done and prove it was the right thing to do long before any Github PR would ever get out of review.

Exactly.
It's more that the low-quality people are way more numerous than otherwise.

For example, in the 2000s and 2010s, javascript had the lowest barrier to entry by far thanks to browser dev tools, so a lot of what you saw was people with no prior experience teaching people with no prior experience. These people are still around, and while plenty have improved, they still form the basis of modern javascript practice.

This is exactly it. There is probably some bad embedded C floating around, but the barrier to entry is higher and thusly that world seems to be a lot more rigorous than the JS flavor of the day.
Embedded C usually isn't much better quality than JS, it's just less public. There's very little overlap with the relatively high quality OSS C available.
Or the person you're replying to is overly generalizing a very large diverse community after extrapolating a few bad experiences.
No but the variance is very high
I never even look at stars. I hardly have any on my work, and that's fine with me. My stuff is of extremely high Quality, because I use it, myself. I'd actually prefer as few others as possible, use it, because then I'm Responsible to ensure that it works for them, and I can't just go in and do whatever I want.

I also use almost no software that has been written by others. I use two or three external dependencies, in my work. Two PHP ones, and one Swift one. All are ones that I could write, myself, if they got hit by a bus, but they do a great job on it, and, as long as they remain bus-free, I'm happy to use their stuff.

The one exception is an app that I just released, using SwiftUI. I needed an admin tool that displays simple bar charts of app usage data. I was going to write my own UIKit bar chart widget, but SwiftUI has a fairly effective library, so I figured I'd use it, and see how SwiftUI is doing, irt shipping apps.

I think that I'll avoid using SwiftUI for a while longer. It's still not ready, but it has come a long way, since my first abortive attempts at using it. The app works, but I did some customization, like pinch-to-zoom, and that's where SwiftUI kicks you in the 'nads. As long as you stay in your lane, things are sick easy, but start driving on the shoulder, and you are in for some misery.

And that's the biggest problem with relying on someone else's code. They usually punish you for any "off-label" use. Apple has always been like that, but they usually let you get away with it. I go "off-label" all the time, because I don't want my apps to look like Apple Settings App panels. SwiftUI doesn't suffer deviance at all. Just adding pinch-to-zoom was a bit of a misery (but I got it going, after several days of banging my head, and it now works fine). Some frameworks and libraries won't let you deviate at all. You can't have any pudding, if you don't eat yer meat.

I'm finding similar results. I used to just write everything myself when a need arose, but in trying to better spend my time I find myself checking what's out there. And inevitably I'll find something that will claim to do exactly what I need.

From there, I find two problems rather often. One, it doesn't actually do what it claims. Googling is fruitless because I must have been the first one to actually try it. Gotta love Googling an error and finding exactly one result - the source code. I sometimes open a bug report depending on how the project seems, and that gets anything from deaf ears to "oh thanks, we'll fix it in the April release" which is of little use to me now.

The other is something you touched on briefly, that the API or contract changes in unexpected ways over time. You can stave this off for a little while by pinning, but then you're missing out on bug fixes and new features. Which, especially for a middleware type thing, is usually a death sentence by bitrot.

[flagged]
The reason why software is crappy compared to physical products is because products come with a warranty and software doesn't. If you buy a blender and it makes some strange noise, you don't think twice about returning it, and maybe buying a different brand. If it breaks later, you can get repaired for free under the warranty, or else get it repaired.

You have none of these recourses with software. Yes, there are trial periods but that's not the same as buying and returning, and they're usually shorter than return windows.

And there's never any guarantee that it will "just work". We have managed to convince consumers to put up with software that "breaks" in a way that they would never do with hardware.

Also there's no ceiling to the debt that can accrue from integrating a certain software with a product, and when that debt stalls for a while then it'll just become accepted as part of the process. Whereas a blender has a debt ceiling of 1 blender, and the labor time of maintenance boils down to placing an order for a new one occasionally.
RE: stars and DL counts, I'd say the best measure is checking the creator's other repos, their number of followers and the issue churn rate. Stars can be useful but only as a very rough process of elimination.

If the project appears to have several active contributors that would be good too.

I'm a star inflater and I feel a little bad about it. AFAIK GitHub does not have a good "bookmark" mechanism besides stars. So when I come across an interesting/useful project I'll start it to be able to find it later. My browser bookmarks have become a bit of a black hole where URLs go to get lost.

So hopefully I didn't bookmark a project someone else is trying to judge the quality of based on stars. Who knows how much technical debt or damage I've caused because GitHub doesn't have a bookmark feature that isn't gamified.

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I've found the best way to evaluate the quality of npm libraries is to use Snyk analyzer https://snyk.io/advisor/check/npm

    > I keep bumping into the fact that using mentally cheap signals of quality (such as stars or DL counts) almost never indicates the quality of the thing itself.
I find that docs are typically a really good proxy for quality. Solid docs with clear expression of intent (design, usage, features) is usually a good sign.

Astro.js, VueUse, Quasar (it's ugly, but amazing).

I've never used it, but I'm surprised to never hear anything bad about Quasar.

It seems like a pretty niche project with am enthusiastic following. Like Elm, but even more niche.

The components are the most complete set I've come across and cover a really broad famit of use cases. Docs are really good. Great toolset for building fast (though AI now may bias towards Tailwind and just generate whatever you need).
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I have some insight into this because this claim is about my company Fivetran:

“…relies on the data source being able to seek backwards on its changelog. But Postgres throws changelogs away once they're consumed, so the Postgres data source can't support this operation”

Dan’s understanding is incorrect, Postgres logical replication allows each consumer to maintain a bookmark in the WAL, and it will retain the WAL until you acknowledge receipt of a portion and advance the bookmark. Evidently, he tried our product briefly, had an issue or thought he had an issue, investigated the issue briefly and came to the conclusion that he understood the technology better than people who have spent years working on it.

Don’t get me wrong, it is absolutely possible for the experts to be wrong and one smart guy to be right. But at least part of what’s going on in this post is an arrogant guy who thinks he knows better than everyone, coming to snap conclusions that other people’s work is broken.

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> When their product attempts to do this and the operation fails, we end up with the sync getting "stuck", needing manual intervention from the vendor's operator and/or data loss. Since our data is still on Postgres, it's possible to recover from this by doing a full resync, but the data sync product tops out at 5MB/s for reasons that appear to be unknown to them, so a full resync can take days even on databases that aren't all that large. Resyncs will also silently drop and corrupt data

I don't know, but it sounds like you skipped over most of the reasons why the author was annoyed by Fivetran. You advertise "Connect data sources to PostgreSQL in minutes using Fivetran" but if Dan Luu -- who is certainly an intelligent and capable engineer -- and his coworkers can't figure out how to use your product correctly, and if your customer support also can't figure out why the sync breaks, then maybe this isn't mere customer 'arrogance'.

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> if Dan Luu -- who is certainly an intelligent and capable engineer -- and his coworkers can't figure out how to use your product correctly, and if your customer support also can't figure out why the sync breaks, then maybe this isn't mere customer 'arrogance'.

Dan Luu claims, among other things, to experience hundreds of software bugs per week. If you believe the things he writes then he's not at all representative of a normal customer.

Hundreds seems attainable.

Today, for me: * Firefox mobile didn't load the keyboard on a textbox making me kill and restart the app to get it to work. * Firefox mobile pull to refresh triggered while scrolling up * I ask Alexa to turn on some lights and she dinged like she did it but nothing happened. * I turned on my office light that has a routine to turn on a space heater and another light. Only the first light turned on * The Roomba got lost and ignored its keep our zone and ran into the Christmas tree skirt. * When I ran out to get groceries android auto wouldn't connect until I restarted the car. * On another errand, apple car play refused to play music even though it said it was. * A website told me I had unsaved changes and wanted to know if I wanted to navigate away from the page without saving.... While clicking the save button. * I got a letter in the mail from Amex telling me that they couldn't reach me by email and I needed to log into my account and pay a zero dollar balance. This is after I closed all my accounts months ago, I get two letters each month to sign into an account that was deleted to pay a bill that doesn't exist. * Octopi said it's webserver wasn't running, a refresh fixed it. * Build tools at work linked the wrong binary for some tools and I had to manually correct the symlinks. * Insert 10 or more bugs with pipe wire and pulse audio on Ubuntu.

I'm sure there's more, every day is like this. Yesterday I had a plethora of bugs trying to get screenshare and webcam streaming to work for a video conference despite working for a dry run a few minutes prior.

And right now, line breaks aren't working in this reply

This sounds like a plausible list.

Often times on HN it can be hard to distinguish between scoundrels/trolls/losers/etc… with ulterior motives and genuine people with accurate information, but for this case since Dan Luu has done a lot of credible actions, he should be given the benefit fo the doubt.

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Many of those things may not be software bugs as I would normally understand the term, but rather software behaving as specified/intended, where that specification/intention has unexpected and/or undesirable consequences. (The line break thing certainly is, for example). I find it unhelpful to conflate the two.
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> software behaving as specified/intended, where that specification/intention has unexpected and/or undesirable consequences

Unexpected behaviour is how I choose to define "bug".

It doesn't matter if the programmer intended it. It's still a bug if it behaves contrary to the user expectation.

It might be that the best resolution is better documentation / training, but it's still worth of a bug being raised to fix.

You've never had contradictory user requirements thrown at you, with the expectation that you somehow implement them both? By this definition all software with more than one user is buggy, and it's impossible to do otherwise until we get AGI to do everything.
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It's a bug if it behaves contrary to the programmer's expectation. Full stop. There is too much diversity in users to go the other way on this.

If a product doesn't meet a user's expectations it may be a poor fit, improper usage, or even a braindead terrible design, but these are not bugs.

I personally don't mind when people lump intentionally bad behavior along with the bugs.
Which ones? I could see the pull to refresh maybe not being a bug, but every single other one sounds like a bug to me.
  • lmm
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I mentioned the line breaks are by design. Roomba could be a hardware error or sensor noise. Text box not bringing up the keyboard it's hard to be sure whether that's a bug or intended. The auto thing not connecting could easily be hardware or deliberate. Letters from Amex might well be as specified by their processes. Webserver not running might have been deliberate maintenance.

Many of them could be software bugs, sure, but without actually figuring out what's going on and what the root cause is it's hard to tell.

Oh, I wasn't sure which direction the line break "certainly is" went in. But they have line breaks elsewhere in their post...

I would say failing to deal with hardware error that strongly is a bug. Keyboard I'm pretty sure is a bug, I've had plenty of situations where the keyboard code locks up and needs app restarts. Auto not being auto would be a weird thing to lie about, otherwise it's a bug. "Specified by their processes" a process is an algorithm, sending incorrect messages for $0 could be an algorithm bug or an implementation bug but either way it's a bug in the software, it's not doing that because someone decided it actually should do that. It said the webserver wasn't running but it was, that's a bug if they didn't have a exact unlucky timing.

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I think most people experience hundreds of bugs per week, they may not notice them and or realize they are bugs.
I experience hundreds of bugs per week. Some in my own product. Most in others. Many are small and solved with a refresh. Most go unnoticed or are easily ignored.
That wouldn't really surprise me. Off the top of my head things I've experienced in the past week or two and remembered:

- Four involving a Vim upgrade being pushed by one tool and blocked by another; a broken shortcut causing gVim to load with an error message and no working menus - not fixed by uninstall/reinstall; unable to delete one of the Vim DLLs; Windows Explorer window lockup after right click (possibly it had the DLL loaded for Vim context menu icon?).

- FireFox regularly stops loading pages until I visit Help -> About FireFox and see that it's silently done an upgrade and is waiting to restart.

- Cloud service with SSO login working for months, stopped working with mysterious 'error processing your credentials' type message.

- and it has a broken 'send password reset email' feature, no email gets to me.

- checking for blocked emails in SaaS email filter, when I put my email in the 'Recipient' box of the search, Edge browser autofill puts my email address in the 'Sender' search field as well, incorrectly / uselessly.

- Edge browser autofill dropdowns routinely cover SaaS product's HTML/JS dropdown menus.

- New SaaS product which has a username/password login instead of SSO, but login goes to a prompt with only 'use SSO' (which we don't) or 'forgot my password' (after logging in successfully). Clicking 'use SSO' gets past that screen, I think it's internal between-different sub-sites SSO abstraction leaking to the customer.

- SaaS product offers 2-factor auth using Google Authenticator, if using the signup key instead of QR code it appears in a difficult-to-select text label. Entering an expired TOTP code shows an incorrect error saying the code can only be used once (Time Based OTP codes are valid for the time duration, often ~30 seconds for any number of uses).

- Saving details for that site in a SaaS password vault from a different vendor, an error like 'no saved password' popped up despite having a password saved.

- At least four different debugger errors - set breakpoint either not setting, or not breaking, or debugger crashing, or code crashing without error message until upgrading the runtime.

- Windows 'restart and update' over and over until 'check for updates' and it decided there weren't any, then the option disappeared.

- Dell laptop firmware upgrade which rebooted to upgrade firmwares, then said it failed.

- Always on VPN for work which stops passing traffic until the service is restarted, a couple of times a month.

- Backup software which runs for a week then fails, until rebooted. Vendor support blames the network.

- Monitoring software which reported the wrong datastore sizes from a VMware host until the host management services were restarted, one or both of them are bugged.

- Theater website's date range selection on mobile, I dropped down the start, slowly worked through year/month and tapped a day, dropped down end, again went through year/month and tapped a day after the start, 'apply' button was greyed out, tapped outside the calendar controls, and they hadn't registered the days. Retried and it worked second time.

- Multiple websites where the infinite scroll or 'load more' links stop working, including big ones like YouTube.

- SaaS product search finding an item for one coworker, not finding it for another coworker.

- SaaS ticketing system not finding the ticket ID typed into the search until the search is retried a couple of times, multiple times per day.

- SaaS ticketing system not handling session timeout properly and presenting a normal interface where everything looks fine until attempting to interact with it and then presenting an 'oops something went wrong' style error message instead of going to the login prompt.

- Switching back to VMware web client in a browser tab, finding it showing the "your session will expire in 20 seconds" countdown box, knowing that the session expired an hour or three ago, and the 'extend session' button doesn't work.

- SaaS password vault, VMware web client, not handling session timeout properly and presenting a normal interface where everything looks fine until attempting to interact with it and only then whisking away to the logon prompt.

- Secure Jumpbox tool doesn't save its settings between sessions, even though it explicitly has a 'make this the the default value' type option.

- Secure jumpbox tool presents multiple screen resolution options which don't work, only some of them work.

- Database engine sync reporting different sync status in different views.

- Reddit discussion from 1 year ago with URL to the CDC website which is now a 404.

- iOS keyboard unreliable at opening the select-all/copy/paste popup dialog, often needs prompting and reprompting.

- iOS keyboard unreliable at starting swiping.

- After powering off phone and on again, torch GUI would switch 'on' but torch LED was not lit up, persisted for maybe 10 seconds after unlocking, as if there were internals still booting and the GUI was disconnected from control of the hardware.

- pfSense (OpenBSD-based) firewall upgrade process from old versions is broken.

- Computer game where the character turned invisible and then never turned visible again; glitchy bounds checks; glitch-teleported back to a starting point in the middle of a fight; unreliable animation on characters being enchanted; glitchy behaviour happening for an attack which doesn't have that behaviour. 'Disable background service' setting doesn't disable the background service. Network glitched and dropped back to the main menu not counting any of the progress made. Showed loading screen then didn't load. Network glitch and the fire button became the wrong way round - gun stopped firing when clicked, fired continuously when not clicked. Audio stopped working after RDP connection until game restarted.

- Proprietary software content to fill the disk with logfiles that aren't tidied up or limited by default.

- Search engines which don't search for what I type in and show something else instead. Try Google for "spirtling", top result is a Wiktionary page for it as an archaic spelling of using a Scottish porridge stirrer, other relevant results. DuckDuckGo result has changed it to "sporting" and are horse racing tips, then spirling and spiraling, then spirtling.

- New York Times' Connections game, on small screen phone the "one away" message appears in the wrong Z-order behind the top bar, unreadable unless tapped on to bring it to the front. After a game the 'register an account to track progress' popup partially blocks the 'close summary screen and look at the final game state' X button.

- Runaway memory use in Amazon.co.uk and YouTube.com tabs left open too long until FireFox restarted that 'about:processes' can't help with.

- Teams continuing ringing on cellphone after I've answered the call on laptop.

- Google StreetView glitches where it sometimes gets stuck at junctions and can't move forwards but can double-click-jump there instead.

- and if we count glitchy / unexpected / poor user interface or user experience as well.. Python's IDLE laggy keyboard input until latest version installed. Vendor renewal email which doesn't say what is being renewed in a useful way. Etsy online shop which encouraged me to click on 'related' links then gave me a captcha because they couldn't tell if I was human or robot. Inconsistent YouTube keyboard shortcuts. AWS's chat LLM gave incorrect instructions for how to achieve firewall rule change on AWS server. VoIP phone app which switches back to the signing-in animation every few minutes.

- The https://www.skyscanner.net/ date selection is poor (it's not clear that clicking 'Depart' also sets the 'Return' date until you try and get rid of the calendar so you can set the return date and find you cannot. You can (X) to clear the return date and the depart date stays configured so you can set a new return date, but you can't X out of the depart date to set a different one without clearing the return date as well and having to reset that. Once both dates are set, you can't adjust them; clicking the 'Return' box where the UX looks like you're setting a return date, when you click on a day it will clear both dates and then set the date you click on as the new departure date, getting in the way. The depart and return boxes have the same visual loko as the From/To boxes which you can type airport codes in, but this is misleading as you cannot type a date into the date boxes.

- https://calculator-online.net/sohcahtoa-calculator/ says "This calculator uses the SOH.CAH.TOA mnemonic method to solve the sides and angles of a right triangle. It provides step-by-step calculations using the SOHCAHTOA formula" but put in leg a=1 and sin ⍺=30 and it calculates that the hypotenuse is length 2, showing the step-by-step solution using Pythagoras' Theorem using the length of sides b and c that we haven't given and don't know.

And this isn't counting design I find confusing, documentation which is unclear, layout bugs where things don't visually align or the spacing is misleading or the organization is unhelpful, bugs in tabstop ordering, or not-really-bugs like Notepad++ lagged with a single line of 10MB of data, or EMACS lagged with a long line, etc.

Just calling this one out: "Inconsistent YouTube keyboard shortcuts." because it's so annoying and wouldn't it have been easier if they were all hooked to the same code, than to implement them differently? Assume YouTube.com in FireFox on Windows.

- 'space' will play/pause the video if the main video has focus, or if most other controls are selected (e.g. volume), but if the settings are open then 'space' will change the setting and play/pause the video.

- holding 'space' when the main video has focus will 2x speed the video for the duration of the hold. Holding space when the 'play' button has focus will not do anything. Not double-speed, not repeatedly play/pause.

- 'k' will play/pause the video whatever control has the focus. Holding 'k' will stutter the video repeatedly switching play/pause. (Why?). Holding 'k' will never 2x speed the video. Space and K are both play/pause but implemented differently and inconsistently.

- Left/Right arrows rewind/fastforward by 5 seconds when most controls have focus, but when the volume slider has focus then left/right arrows change the volume. The Auto-play enabled/disabled control is also a left/right sliding one but the left/right arrows do not move that when it has focus.

- Up/Down arrows control the volume. Even when the volume slider has focus and left/right arrows are also controlling the volume. But wait, the up/down arrows don't control the volume when the settings are open; then they only move the selection in the settings. (Contrast with spacebar which activates settings and play/pauses at the same time, contrast with Return which sometimes does play/pause and does activate settings but does not do both at the same time).

- Page Up/Page Down with the video focused is browser page scroll. Click on the video position bar, the thin red one, and Page Up/Down do rewind/ffwd by 1 minute! With this focused, up/down arrows stop being volume control and now do the same rewind/ffwd as left/right arrows.

- j/l do rewind/ffwd like the left/right arrow keys, but they jump 10 seconds instead of 5 seconds.

- 'Return' activates a focused control so with play/pause focused it will do play/pause; it behaves almost like spacebar and it stutters the video like 'k' when held - but with the main video having the focus, Enter does not play/pause, it does nothing.

WHY are they so inconsistent?

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Fivetran works perfectly fine for syncing Postgres databases into Snowflake. My company syncs dozens of them without problems. I can only assume their Postgres database has a non standard set up.
Considering the comment chain involved here chiming in with "I can only assume non standard setup" is pretty hilarious.
Yeah, if you have 1 million dollars to spend every time you run a data migration or anything else that touches many rows.

I've seen some new libraries crop up for writing your own replication slot clients. I wouldn't use fivetran for PG.

Either you have a lot of data and fivetran will be too expensive or you don't, and you're better off just using a postgres OLAP plugin/extension.

Maybe it was because it was in beta, but I had a nightmare of a time with fivetrans API trying to coordinate connectors and destinations and git access.

I have no idea who is right or wrong as to the capabilities. But I believe his story that he couldn't get it working. And I believe your statement that it can be made to work.

When very smart people can't get your product to work as advertised, that's a problem with either the advertising, or the documentation, or maybe the default settings. Or maybe it needs the source data set up in a very specific way.

That kind of plays into the larger point of the essay that outsourcing this sort of thing still requires significant internal knowledge, and therefore may not be as cheap as it looks at first glance.

In general, I absolutely agree with you. It’s basically an instance of “the customer is always right”: if a smart customer can’t get our product working, there is a problem with the product. But this post made a much bolder (and wrong) claim: “the product has a number of major design flaws that mean that it literally cannot work”.
You went too far in your pushback though.

"part of what’s going on in this post is an arrogant guy who thinks he knows better than everyone, coming to snap conclusions that other people’s work is broken"

He's probably wrong about why it was broken, but it was broken.

And it's not exactly "arrogance" to give the best explanation you have, in a blog post about something else, while not mentioning the company name.

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> He's probably wrong about why it was broken, but it was broken.

That's going too far. If the customer misunderstands the product or misreads the documentation, that's something worth addressing, but "broken" is not an informative way to describe it.

Dan never called out Fivetran, he wrote a couple sentences about problems he experienced with an anonymous ETL provider. That was it. Hell we don't even know that he's actually talking about Fivetran.

George however should not allowed to come to HN and start talking shit about random people who had the professional courtesy to never even mention the provider in question. The fact that his post isn't flagged, is highly upvoted, and dang hasn't swooped in to chastise him is a prime example of why HN is so fucking ridiculous and hypocritical.

If, sure. Do we have any reason to think the problem was a misunderstanding or a misreading?
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We know that Luu was misunderstanding at least some things, since he gave an inaccurate description of what was happening. Given that context, I find it more plausible that he was also misunderstanding other things, than that the thing was broken for him despite other people seeing it working. Even if you weigh the likelihood differently from me, you must admit that that's a possibility, so concluding that it was broken because Luu thought it was broken is at a minimum premature.
Given the other comments talking about problems here, we don't know for sure if it was inaccurate. But even if it was, "plausible" that he was misunderstanding other things is a hell of a lot weaker than the way your comment above treated it as the truth of the matter.

Overall I think it's pretty unlikely that it wasn't broken.

> Evidently, he tried our product briefly

> investigated the issue briefly

> coming to snap conclusions

Where exactly is the evidence that he tried your product only briefly and that he investigated briefly? I've read through it and don't see that anywhere.

After reading your comment, I lean towards you being the arrogant, thin-skinned one about your product and coming to snap conclusions about your customers who are paying for your product and having trouble with it and calling them arrogant instead of looking into why they are experiencing frustration with your product.

Perhaps Dan's conclusion was wrong, but the tone and wording of your response is just off putting and devoid of tact, empathy and teachability.

Something like "No, I don't believe it's broken because x, y and z. But I do see how the developer experience here is left wanting. Maybe we can improve it" would have been so much better.

The evidence is that he didn't read the postgres manual section on log-based replication[1] which would have told him how to configure a postgres master server so that it doesn't delete logs until all consumers have processed them.

It's not a five minute setup, but Dan doesn't write that the setup takes longer than five minutes - he writes that the design is fundamentally broken. Which it isn't, if you read the postgres manual. We're not even talking about the manual of the product he tried out for five minutes - we're talking about the manual of the database he's responsible for administering!

The overall point of the article is fine though. Original Commenter was nitpicking.

[1] https://www.postgresql.org/docs/current/warm-standby.html

> how to configure a postgres master server so that it doesn't delete logs until all consumers have processed them.

Do you think it'd be reasonable for FiveTran to include this little tidbit in their setup documentation? I'm not talking about repeating the Postgres docs, but just a blurb about the need to do this kind of Postgres config?

That's an example of what I mean when I'm calling out georgewfraser to be humble and use Dan's feedback improve his product (in this case by improving the docs) instead of name calling his customers.

Ok, so Dan came to the wrong conclusion and was wrong to say the product was broken, but he had the professional courtesy to not name the company/product. George just attacks his character. Like another commenter mentioned, we don't even know for sure it was FiveTran. Yet, George just jumps in head first with guns blazing.

And "manual intervention from the vendor" didn't involve fixing that, if it was such a trivial configuration issue?
The article is also several years old, No idea if that has an impact on the issue.
Weird approach chastising your customers lack of expertise in something they’re actively trying to pay you to solve for them. He shouldn’t have to be an expert in it.

I was a longtime customer of fivetran who hit these sync issues constantly. Forced resyncs every other month. Was so thankful when our contract ended.

In 2021, my employer was a major customer of Fivetran. Our Postgres syncs routinely broke and required time-consuming resyncs from scratch.

Dan's essay is dated 2022. It is now 2024, so maybe something has changed since then on the code path between Postgres and Fivetran to allow backtracking.

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You would be the best one to evaluate if this applies in your case but in many cases where my users say "it's not possible" I end up finding a gap that's more related to usability than technical. I often still find there's something worth learning from this kind of feedback even if it's "wrong".
I assume Dan Luu was using the old “XMIN” method and not Logical Replication.

https://fivetran.com/docs/connectors/databases/postgresql/tr...

> Evidently, he tried our product briefly, had an issue or thought he had an issue, investigated the issue briefly and came to the conclusion that he understood the technology better than people who have spent years working on it..

This doesn't match this:

> Syncing from Postrgres is the main offering (as in the offering with the most customers) from a leading data sync company, and we found that it would lose data, duplicate data, and corrupt data. After digging into it, it turns out that the product has a design that, among other issues, relies on the data source being able to seek backwards on its changelog. But Postgres throws changelogs away once they're consumed, so the Postgres data source can't support this operation. When their product attempts to do this and the operation fails, we end up with the sync getting "stuck", needing manual intervention from the vendor's operator and/or data loss. Since our data is still on Postgres, it's possible to recover from this by doing a full resync, but the data sync product tops out at 5MB/s for reasons that appear to be unknown to them, so a full resync can take days even on databases that aren't all that large. Resyncs will also silently drop and corrupt data, so multiple cycles of full resyncs followed by data integrity checks are sometimes necessary to recover from data corruption, which can take weeks. Despite being widely recommended and the leading product in the space, the product has a number of major design flaws that mean that it literally cannot work.

That description doesn't sound like _he_ briefly used your product, but that company he was working for used your product, found bugs and despite contacting support couldn't make it work. This doesn't read at all as a minor experiment that he didn't put in the time.

The kind of arrogance this comment displays has ensured that I’ll try my best to never use Fivetran anywhere I work ever again.
But did you ever in the first place?
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I'm not quite following. His argument appears to be: The replication system requires a backwards seek, Postgres does not support that operation, things break when that operation is attempted.

I don't understand why replication would need a backwards seek - are you saying it doesn't and he is mistaken on that?

This is unavoidable if you are at least a bit smarter than the average person, since in many cases their work just is broken.

It’s taken me far too long to internalize that the chances of someone making an (egregious) mistake in something I rely on to be correct are very much nonzero.

> an arrogant guy who thinks he knows better than everyone, coming to snap conclusions that other people’s work is broken

I see you’ve met my boss.

...how is _this_ the insight that you come away from this post with?

This post is a commentary on product quality issues, the underlying cost models (both goods and services), and the interplay with American culture. There's like 20+ company/product anecdotes in there - a mistake about one detail about one technical detail of one product is wildly uninteresting.

This is the case where you buy from experts instead of doing it yourself. You tried, thought it was impossible, someone else figured it out.
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> markets enforce efficiency, so it's not possible that a company can have some major inefficiency and survive

This just seems totally false on its face. If you've worked at the big guys you know they aren't magically smarter, they do very inefficient things frequently.

It's so intuitively false that I'd have to wonder about someone who thinks it's true.

It can be helpful to think of the Econ 101/homo economicus view of the world as something more akin to a secular religion.

And I don't mean that in a particularly bad way; most religions package a bunch of useful concepts (e.g., the golden rule) with some stuff that isn't literally true but does serve social and emotional needs in ways that the useful stuff gets passed down through the generations. As scholar Huston Smith put it, religion gives spirituality historical traction.

The notion that markets can drive efficiency is a valuable insight. But people for whom Econ 101 acts as a religion have a really hard time noticing when that effect gets swamped. This is pretty easy to spot these days because you'll find nominally pro-market people cheering oligopolies and monopolies, or getting upset at regulations that make markets more efficient. One easy test is how they feel about sustained high profits. To people who value markets for their ability to drive improvements through competition, that's a sign of something wrong, like insufficient price competition.

> The notion that markets can drive efficiency is a valuable insight. But people for whom Econ 101 acts as a religion have a really hard time noticing when that effect gets swamped.

US businesses, though, do not. The desired state is monopoly, or, failing that, oligopoly with three or less major players. The US is there in cellular communications, web search, banking, drugstores, social networks, movies...

"Competition is for losers" - Thiel.

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> "Competition is for losers" - Thiel.

This quote is great but is not a call for building inefficient businesses. An inefficient business invites competition (which is for losers). An equally nice saying is "your margin is my opportunity".

> An inefficient business invites competition (which is for losers)

Unless you reach the point where you have a monopoly and it's impossible to compete. At this point, you can become inefficient and still keep your monopoly. For a very long time, at least. And this is something we observe in software.

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Yeah and that's mostly nonsense (but expedient). It's hard to compete with any large industry and still their inefficiency is your opportunity. See also Uber and friends against taxis (both impossible and illegal), SpaceX against Team USA (preposterous), everyone else against AOL (okay, that one was easy), Oracle (who?)... For one example, it's hard to compete against Google's core businesses but it's not like most here wouldn't be glad to find alternatives, any alternatives... Wait, alternative to what? The browser has clear dominance but that's not even Google's core business. Youtube is pretty dominant - but even then Facebook and Tik-tok beg to differ.

I'm not saying that "competition is for losers" is wrong. It's an excellent objective, to carve yourself a (large, comfortable) niche where you are the no-brainer solution. But it's no license to fall asleep.

Lately I've been wondering if the efficient market hypothesis was actually more true a century ago than it is now.

Not because anything fundamental has changed about economics, but because baselines have shifted to the point that what we expect an efficient market to look like may be very different from what what people expected it to look like in the early 20th century. So, basically, people's definition of "efficient" has subtly changed.

A century or so ago market economies hadn't caught on to the same extent. In the 1950s you had Khrushchev coming to visit Iowa to learn about US agricultural productivity. He visited family farms, talked to people about how they did things, and then went back home to tell the USSR's farmers that they needed to plant corn everywhere, including in places where the climate is not even remotely suitable for growing corn. All this time talking to family farmers about how they make their own decisions about the best use of their own land, and he somehow still failed to pick up on the idea that maybe the secret ingredient in the sauce was that the USA generally let farmers run their own farms.

Sure, the USA's capitalist economy still had charlatans, including agricultural charlatans, and wasteful fads for bad ideas, rent-seeking behavior, pork barrel politics, etc. But maybe it was still easy to see that situation as efficient at the time, because one's reference for comparison included being able to see the greater amount of damage that a planned economy allowed a charlatan like Lysenko to do from his position of power within the Soviet Academy of Sciences.

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I think it absolutely was. Even 50+ years ago there was far more competition in any number of industries and investors looking at a particular widget maker could compare numerous companies and analyze the operations and strategy of each before picking which one(s) to invest in. Today we assume EMH when competition has become increasingly rare... so everyone from consumers to investors have fewer options yet somehow efficiency is supposed to exist.

Today most just pile into the megacaps and generally assume 'these guys are the biggest... they must be the best.' Sure, there's a small window of competition in the VC world where money piles into non-public companies for a few years before a winner is selected (often having nothing to do with having the best product/service or even being the most efficient or profitable... it's all about who scaled to the finish line the fastest) and either becomes the 800lb gorilla or gets gobbled up by one.

> Lately I've been wondering if the efficient market hypothesis was actually more true a century ago than it is now.

Probably.

A century ago, the companies which approached monopoly were in industries that had either huge economies of scale or very strong network effects. The United States Steel Corporation was an example of the first, and the Pennsylvania Railroad an example of the second. Even railroads were somewhat local monopolies - the Pennsylvania never merged with the Union Pacific. Not that the government at the time would have let them.

What changed?

- Better transport and communication. Selling to country-sized and world-sized markets became feasible.

- Computerization. Big companies used to have huge clerical plants of people pushing paper. Some of that paper pushing scaled faster than linearly, so the bigger the company, the worse it got. The administration system of big companies couldn't get out of its own way. It's forgotten now, but pre-computer, railroad companies had no idea where most of their shipments currently were. Paperwork was nailed to the side of boxcars and traveled with the load. As late as the 1960s, auto companies were struggling to figure out where their vehicles in transit on rail cars had gotten lost. Today the mechanics of tracking everything is a non-problem. Walmart, Target, and Amazon work fine. Planetary-scale companies are possible and common.

- Bigger banks. Until the 1980s, US banks could not operate across state lines. Until the 1990s, nationwide banks did not exist in the US. This limited large business access to borrowed capital. Most companies were primarily funded by equity, supported by national stock markets.

I think the hypothesis was more true in the past, but mostly because both the necessary dependencies it is based on are less true today than in the past, and the products and services are more complex today.

Back when anybody could start building furniture the cost of entry was low and competition high. Switching costs were also low.

The cost of entry for a smartphone which is truly different are astronomical, many previously unregulated products are now strictly regulated, so costs of entry is no longer low and therefore competition is also low. For many services like software switching costs are very high. Firms need to be large to produce the complex products which introduces internal inefficiencies which are hard to avoid.

Realizing a day later that I misspoke in the first sentence. "Efficient market hypothesis" is something else; I should have said something like "idea that freer markets are more efficient".
> It can be helpful to think of the Econ 101/homo economicus view of the world as something more akin to a secular religion.

I find it much more common for people to dismiss Econ 101 principles religiously (e.g. less strict zoning will just create more luxury apartments that will actually make housing more expensive; demand subsidies to college education, an inelastic good, will make it more affordable).

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> I find it much more common for people to dismiss Econ 101 principles religiously (e.g. less strict zoning will just create more luxury apartments that will actually make housing more expensive; demand subsidies to college education, an inelastic good, will make it more affordable).

I don't think any of that's religious. People believe subsidizing college education will make it cheaper because of common sense and lived experience of short-term effects (increasing subsidy to something generally does make it cheaper in the immediate), and people believe relaxing zoning will make housing more expensive because they see higher prices in places that have relaxed zoning than in neighbouring places that haven't.

That just sounds like "stubbornly" to me. People are often stubbornly wrong (or right), but in your examples I don't see anything that would make me call it religious in the sense of the comment you're replying to. Which, to be clear, is a set of given notions that they use to make sense of the world.
Econ 101 is the first semester of a multi year degree. By necessity it focuses on idealistic concepts. Nothing wrong with that—of course N-order effects, psychology, and information disparity, etc need to be taken into account in the real world.

Without this understanding one ends up in such a debate.

The problem is that so many people who only take Econ 101 seem to believe their understanding is analogous to understanding the physics of reality by learning Newton's laws and equations of motion.

But it isn't. Econ 101 is more analogous to Aristotelian physics, full of outright falsehoods, self-contradictions, things that sound right but have no basis in reality, and an abject failure and unwillingness to test anything and change your mind once you've seen contradictory results.

So you have millions upon millions shouting "regulation bad" with nary a whiff of systemic understanding.

Econ 101 is terrible.

Spot on!

Funnily, I think this is also true of most traditional religions. I have known a variety of thoughtful and sincere religious people over the years. They have studied extensively and deeply engaged with the human meaning of the words. But I've also met a lot of very shallowly religious people, either because they haven't bothered or because they work energetically to maintain a narrow take because it's socially or economically useful to them.

And of course there's an intersection in what I've heard called the "Supply Side Jesus" view.

> The problem is that so many people who only take Econ 101 seem to believe their understanding is analogous to understanding the physics of reality by learning Newton's laws and equations of motion.

This is in my opinion a bad analogy: if you have really understood these physics topics, your understanding of physics is surprisingly deep (I claim better than 99 % of the population) - classical mechanics is (unknown to many) an insanely deep rabbit hole.

You haven't demonstrated anything here. One would think in four paragraphs you'd be motivated to give > 0 details or reasoning. And no, political propaganda doesn't count.
There were some examples up above.

Also those "four paragraphs" are only five sentences total. It could easily be a single paragraph.

And there's nothing political in there that I can see.

The "political" is a forewarning to not bother without details. Others already strayed into that territory. As it stands the post is empty rhetoric and insults against a reasonably-well-understood subject studied over centuries.
It's insulting the 101 class much more than the subject. You could even take it as a compliment to the breadth of economics that a proper introduction takes longer.
Have you considered politely asking for what you want?
Not from such an empty negative post—congrats with the other person for defending it.
I don't think you have much standing to complain about negative posts.

I'm also not defending it, although I might be willing to try if you asked nicely. My point is that that your complaint is pretty hollow. "Oh no, somebody posting for free on the internet didn't do the work I wanted! They must be bad!" I guess you get your kicks, but I think it's a pretty low value contribution, in that it is shot through with unearned contempt.

hard to evaluate sustained high profits without context. is it due to continued innovation by the firm? or just rent seeking? both can be causes of profits but we should only be promoting one of those models
Sure, although I think it gets easier as time goes on; there a are lot of innovative people out there. But my point here is more about the reaction to it. If people say, "Well they're making lots of money, so they must be great innovators, great managers, and generally virtuous", then that's basically a religious answer. People who see markets as tools for efficiency will say, "Look at those sustained high profits. Is it really that nobody has figured out how to compete with them yet? Or are they misusing their market power or wealth in ways that limit competition?"
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> One easy test is how they feel about sustained high profits. To people who value markets for their ability to drive improvements through competition, that's a sign of something wrong, like insufficient price competition.

We'd need more context. Those sustained profits are "money on the table". There may be real advantages to the company earning them, like sustained innovation or other quality, that others have trouble competing with. But if those profits are coincident with lots of lobbying and various shenanigans (controversially maybe including patents and copyright)... you'll get more sympathy.

Agreed, but as I mention elsewhere, my point is more about people react to the sustained high profits before they have the context: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42432352
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There being a gravity towards efficiency does not mean that everything is equally spaced.
That’s a brilliant take!
Relevant joke:

Two economists are walking down the street. One of them sees a hundred dollar bill on the sidewalk. Just before he picks it up, his colleague says, "There's no money there. If there was, someone else would have picked it up already." Both agree this is the only rational conclusion and walk away.

This is usually the correct conclusion:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oqXe4WVnAz4

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"Usually" is famous last words in investing - hopefully your rationale goes a little deeper. Doesn't need to be all that deep, just a little deeper than that crowd.
_Usually_ the correct conclusion? Is it more common for pranks to exist than for money to have dropped on the street? C'mon.
It’s true to an extent, you just need a high threshold for “major.”

First, you have to remember to adjust for company size. You might see some obvious inefficiency that costs millions of dollars, but when the company has twelve figures in annual revenue, that’s insignificant.

We all know (probably work at) some company that tries to save money by skimping on hardware for their developers. Some simple upgrades would probably pay for themselves in a few weeks in increased productivity. But what’s the cost, maybe 10% in developer productivity? That’s a lot, but it’s probably not close to make-or-break.

It’s definitely true at the extreme, and it’s a major difference between government programs and private enterprise: a business can’t go on losing money forever.

In less extreme situations, it’ll be true when the cost of the inefficiency exceeds the company’s moat. Oracle can afford to be tremendously inefficient since they have a certain segment of the enterprise database market so locked up. But if they push it too far, they’ll get eaten alive by some upstart.

Think about what it means to be a major inefficiency.

There's going to be some level of friction in the market that competitors must overcome to gain ground on you. If you're a factory, the friction is the cost of the factory plus the opportunity cost of the money used to build it. So any inefficiency less than that is effectively a safe level of inefficiency. Roughly.

We might be developers onsode large corporations witnessing insane amounts of inefficiency, but what are the costs of that next to its actual effect on the business in terms of its ability to fight competitors? Usually relatively small.

You can look around and see vast gulfs in income or profit per employee in some industries. Sometimes it's hard to explain, except as them being inefficient.
To quote a made up quote about a famous made up general:

    The 95% inefficient army crushes the 97% inefficient army.
The market isn't about being efficient, it's about being an epsilon more efficient than your competitors.

Or to quote a friend who works at big tech:

    If only I could get my team of three hundred to be as productive as my first team of three.
It's easy to see the bad stuff. The good stuff just disappears into the background. So, it's probably mostly true that major inefficiencies in products/services get arbed away.

It's sort of like the efficient market hypothesis in the stock market - spend enough time in it and you'll see the vast majority of the time the vast majority of stocks are not mispriced to any meaningful level. But it stands out like crazy when you see one and you remember it.

It comes from an economic theory. The problem is that people who say that kind of thing ignore one of the basic assumptions of that theory: that all actors have all the necessary information to make the best choice (and also that they act "rationally"). The problem is that it is very rarely possible to obtain that information, and even if it is possible it might take a lot of time and effort.
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It's not a bad assumption.

If you buy a bond, it's probably pretty close to it's fair value in large part because my colleagues and I, and our competitors make sure it stays that way.

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Markets drive efficiency but there is no major force that makes the process fast.

All the way to the process taking several lifetimes and so it's one dimension of human-scale investing or competition but just as iffy as the rest. So you see plenty of people trying to nudge the process, which is not a bad idea. For example build a file, short, publish and advertise the file.

While I haven’t worked at “the big guys”, I don’t find the statement false at face value. Rather (as you point out) perhaps a bit over simplified. Furthermore, it might be better to say “fair markets demonstrating healthy competition encourage efficiency.” But even in skewed markets, i.e. those with monopolies or heavily entrenched participants, the big guys may have inefficient operations scattered throughout, but can utilize their size to distribute those inefficiencies across other areas where they have above average efficiency. (Orgs like Amazon have perfected this practice). However, I’d argue the original quote is still true at face value, if the net sum of all your practices is in the red (financially) then the company can’t survive forever (although the company decay time-scale may seem long WRT one’s perspective).
Efficient markets enforce efficiency. The trouble is that purely efficient markets are very much a spherical cow—they're useful for modeling reality in some simple simulations, but they miss an awful lot of detail and that can lead to very bad conclusions if you take them too seriously.
This goes along with the common advice that all models are wrong, but some are useful.
"*Major" inefficiency is doing a lot of work there. If something that can clearly be improved upon, the market should be able to fill the hole. If its just the usual inefficiencies of day to day humanity, that exists in some form or another at every company and most likely won't be solved without a paradigm shift (like automation or a major process change).

There's also things like barrier to entry and sticky economic forces that means small inefficiencies are not enough to force change.

Religious dogma says X and you observe not-X. It’s easier to build up elaborate theories to explain your observation than to question your dogma (see epicycles, politics, etc)
It’s the Platonic solid of Econ analysis. Sphereical cows.
Yeah, there are counter examples everywhere. Actually I think they are way more than the positive examples (like SpaceX), so the world is definitely very, very inefficient. This can be felt by software engineers more acutely because we move fast and hate bureaucracies but sadly humans have to install bureaucracy for itself.
SpaceX is basically a monopoly at this point. They defined a new kind of market and is the only one serving it.
SpaceX is interesting in that the 'market' is 'Elon wants to go to Mars.'

The side effect of that market is that in order to go to Mars and colonize it, you need transformatively massive, instant, and cheap access to space for near infinite tonnage. Which goes against the previous mantra of the industry- expensive, custom, and irregular.

The new 'form' is impossible for the old 'form' to match, hence a monopoly. But since the new form is so cheap and capable, everybody wins, except the old vendors (and the politicians they fund.)

Yeah, they were pretty efficient so they were rewarded with monopoly. Now maybe they will become slower and slower over time.
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Let's not valorize zero profits. Be suspect of high rates of profit. Why invest if there's no profit?
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the Amazon and Tesla model. lots of investors approve of it.
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I feel the same about the clowns who point to the stock market as some well-oiled capital allocation machine.
I think that most of the people arguing the position do so in bad faith.

They know it's an oversimplification to the point of absurdity, but they want to bog their opponents down in explaining why it's an absurdity, and/or catch them in a minor lack of rigor which can be used to refute every other point they've made, and/or be able to retort with red-baiting along the lines of "why don't you believe markets work? Are you a commie?" It's about controlling the topic of conversation, rather than coming to a mutual understanding about the way the world works.

Theories are marketed too.
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"It's so intuitively false that I'd have to wonder about someone who thinks it's true."

This is a wonderful encapsulation. Thank you.

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For a lot of fields the answer is much simpler. The buyer is simply not equipped to evaluate it at all.

eg I bet north of 50% of people judge their tax accountants by the size of refund not technical and legal accuracy. But they’re still liable so accuracy is an important measure of „good“

Same with say dentist. If he says he needs to do procedure x what am I going to do except ask some layman questions. Or doctor. Even trades often seem simple but have significant accumulated practical learnings that are not obvious to laymen.

It’s tempting to boil everything down to an optimization question & just finding the right metrics, especially for those STEM minded but often that’s not how reality works

Particularly interesting that quality seems to be dropping in an age where reviews are easier to find than ever.

But there has always been an inherent conflict of interest in the place selling the wares (e.g. Amazon) also being the place hosting the reviews. Similarly for AirBNB - it cannot tolerate all of its own hosts being 2 stars.

I disagree that reviews are easy to find. Things that look like reviews are easy to find.

Actual reviews, where somebody experienced in the domain of the product carefully uses it with a critical eye and accurately reports their findings are surprisingly difficult to find for a great many product categories.

I think this has many causes, one of which are things that look like reviews drowning out actual reviews, making the haystack in which the needle is kept bigger. Part of it is those things reducing the market value of reviews, so that there is less budget available for reviewers to do a good job. Part of it is the peddlers of things not supporting reviewers as much as they used to, because a real reviewer might give them a bad review, where they can easily seek out a thing that looks like a review, but has a much higher likelihood of putting their product in a favorable light.

Even when you find a good review, there are complexities of manufacturing (and some intentional obfuscation) that make it hard to compare products or know that you are buying the exact same thing that was reviewed.

If you buy the same item a year after the review, it may have changed. This could change performance but be something totally innocent, like the factory changing suppliers for a key component.

Another pattern is this: Large retailers buying in volume are able to customize what they buy, so the "same" product can differ depending on where you buy it. Differences can range from harmless things like "exclusive" colors all the up to changes in functionality, cheaper internal components, and so on. Sometimes the model numbers are not changed.

Another approach manufacturers use is to use slightly different model numbers everywhere which makes it hard to make exact comparisons. This is common with mattresses and appliances.

>> reviews are easier to find than ever

Nowadays reviews are just a paid marketing. Try to find a true review for a new car. Impossible! Everyone will talk about their feelings, not about the car.

Many even not opening the hood to check the motor. Suspension? No info. I'm interested in how complex is the maintenance, how comfortable is everyday trip. Real gas mileage, etc.

> Particularly interesting that quality seems to be dropping in an age where reviews are easier to find than ever.

I disagree, the world has decided that everyone is able to give out a review when it clearly isn't the case. We are distrustful of experts now, because they can be bought (which is true), and are relying on laymen that are much, much worse.

The old days of buying a magazine with experts reviewing something are gone, sadly.

There's more signal than ever but there's more noise than ever too, and you have to be genuinely savvy / expend a non-negligible amount of time to filter the signal out from the noise, because there's a really strong incentive and norm for any platform with a wide reach to be used as a marketing vector.

You can find a review but how do you know it isn't sponsored content or a paid placement? Most likely whatever information you find independently of the product itself will either be a total random person you found on eg reddit (who could be shilling or ignorant) or a "personality" who may have some degree of credibility and knowledge on the subject but who is increasingly incentivized to cash in on that credibility the more they are trusted to advise on purchasing decisions. We're also starting to experience the effects of over a decade of accumulation of dark patterns, increasingly sophisticated and pervasive marketing, SEO and Google's capitulation by clearly designating trusted "winner" websites, and "growth hacks" which individually may not have been noticeable but cumulatively evoke a general sense of enshittification and inability to find genuine information.

I can't trust Google to give me good search results for a search with commercial intent (too many people working too hard to skew the results away from quality), I can't trust blogs or videos from moderately credible sources to be genuinely impartial (not paid with affiliate links, directly for the review, or indirectly by a steady supply of free stuff from the manufacturer), I can't trust that RedditUser1234's comments on the matter (could be guerilla marketing or just stupid), I can't trust reviews on Amazon/equivalent (my own bad reviews have been removed, Amazon lets sellers get away with all other sorts of review trickery).

I'm often pressured to give incorrect quality ratings for unobvious reasons: I give Uber drivers either 5stars or no rating (after speaking with Uber drivers on the effects of ratings).

AirBnB in particular I noticed has little incentives for me to rate truthfully and a variety of incentives for me to lie (e.g. I wanted to downvote the management but I didn't want the staff member to be affected). Enough so that I bought booking.com shares because the AirBnB experience was too often hideous.

This is where the value of a second or third opinion can become apparent.
The world has become a very complex place. Every single thing from houses to cars to medical services is provided by a team of people with years of training in some esoteric field.

Buyers are going to have a difficult time, and it can only continue to get worse.

Not only is the buyer not able to evaluate the product. The company, doesn't really understand what the buyer wants from the product and why he buys it over other products.
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Exactly this. Even for something that is more relevant to HN, say Computer Hardware. You will already find most people are still doing very high level Spec Comparing without deep understanding within or besides it.

As long as you drill deep enough about anything that is when people start calling you nerd.

SSD ( Type of NAND ), DRAM, CPU Core, uArch, Board Layout, PSU, Fan etc. There are just insane amount of small variables. And unless you take interest in something. Most people are easily swayed by Marketing or Ads.

Yeah, We don't really have the knowledge to ask intelligent questions. I did take some accounting classes so I can have some intelligent discussion with my accountant, but the regulation changes every year so it's difficult to keep up. Even if the accountant misses something, that's quite possible.

I mean, two of my previous companies messed up with payroll and many thousands were impacted.

> Same with say dentist.

Now you're dealing with a person, not a product. And in that case you have to follow your intuition, your gut feeling, regarding whether this individual is somebody to trust. There is no way around this.

Many dentists are money hungry psychopaths and some of them are highly incompetent.

This is probably true for all doctors, but I don't think there is any other essential specialty that can pull as much money out of your pockets via personal persuasion, besides hair transplant and plastic surgeons.

https://www.rd.com/article/how-honest-are-dentists/

I've been thinking about good design lately. Things have to work well, but life is so much better when they are also beautiful. I think Don Norman's essay Emotion and Design started me down this path.

The Conan OBrien and Jordan Schlansky podcast talked about this in the context of nose hair trimmers. It was very funny, but it really resonated with me too. Schlansky starts with:

> I believe that we can live minimally. But the products that I do buy, I want them to be of a very high quality. I want them to have something special about them, and then I have to buy fewer products going forward because they last longer.

A little later he says:

> We define ourselves by the objects we interact with every day. I surround myself with beauty, with high levels of aesthetic pleasure, and it's not only putting on beautiful clothes. It's also using a beautiful nose hair trimmer.

I'm going to get a trimmer, so I want a thoughtfully designed and well made version of that. This has been my mission around my home since the start of the COVID pandemic. Upgrade all the little things around my home that annoy me or that would make my day a little bit better if they were upgraded.

Both OBrien and Schlansky are worth millions, they can afford to buy the highest quality, most expensive option of just about whatever everyday item they happen to be buying because the price range is from zero to zero in relative terms.

There's a better rule to follow. If you think you need something, buy the cheapest possible version that gets the job done first. If you end up using it enough to wear it out, then buy the best option you can afford. Otherwise you're throwing away cash for something you might not ever end up using. Mostly goes for tools, but also other non-necessities.

I get what you are saying and have done that myself. I bought a cheap tile saw at Harbor Freight, retiled a couple rooms in my home, then gave the saw to a neighbor who did the same. Spending more on that would have been a waste especially since it's not something I was keeping.

A trimmer, on the other hand, is something that I handle every week. It's something that takes up space inside my home. The trimmer they are talking about is around $35 and the cheap version is probably $10. There are times when going for the nicer option is money well spent if using it is a nicer experience even if it does exactly the same thing as the cheap version.

Now if the trimmer were $350, that would probably be a hard pass. But $35? That's fine.

I often find there’s a connection between a thing being aesthetically beautiful and good functioning as well. It’s not a universal signal - cheap knock-off manufacturing makes it hard to tell from pictures - but often I find a genuinely beautiful object, one in which the design displays clear attention to detail, exhibits that same attention to detail in the use.

Again, it’s not a universal signal, but good, and particularly well-executed design, can often be a signal the maker put the same attention to detail into how the device works and its internals.

This is why companies put crap in fancy shells.
Intriguing. Does there exist some website that contains curated examples of such things? I realize that my living space is bereft of beauty, and I already struggle to find “thoughtfully designed and aesthetically pleasing” objects. For instance, I’ve held off on buying quality kitchenware for nearly a decade now due to a paradoxical combination of too many choices and lack of discoverability.
I'd love to see something like that as well.

One purchase we made 25ish years ago was some Global knives[1]. They have held up extraordinarily well and if somebody stole ours, I'd buy them again the next day. I think they look great, they feel really good, and they are very nice to use. They might be my favorite thing in the kitchen.

I don't know where our flatware is from. It doesn't have any branding on it, but the pieces are all pretty heavy. IMHO, a little heft feels pretty good.

If I had to buy new bowls and plates today, I'd probably get them from a smaller maker. I learned about East Fork Pottery[2] in North Carolina after they were hit hard by hurricane Helene and have been contemplating an upgrade ever since. I like their stuff, I like how it's made in the USA. Some of it is pretty expensive, but with care it should last a long time and it looks like it would be nice to use and live with.

[1]: https://www.globalcutleryusa.com/knives/collections/classic-...

[2]: https://www.eastfork.com/

The BuyItForLife subreddit is supposed to be something like that, but it's also a giant target for advertising.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure this subreddit is mostly astroturfing.
And when it isn't that, it is survivorship bias.
If this kind of thing interests you, you might also like John Dewey's Art as Experience. It is among Paul Rand's favorite books, but be warned it is quite dense!
Thanks for the recommendation. Looks very interesting. I added it to my to-read list.
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You might enjoy the book Quintessence : The Quality of Having It by Betty Cornfeld and Owen Edwards. It was recommended by Jerry Seinfeld in his GQ 10 Things interview.

https://archive.org/details/quintessence00bett

The things the book lists are: The Martini, The Ace Comb, Wedgwood Plain White Bone China, The Spalding Rubber Ball, Ivory Soap, Campbell’s Tomato Soup, The Peanut Butter and Jelly Sandwich, The Timex Mercury 20521 Watch, The Steinway Piano, Camel Cigarettes, Keds High-top Sneakers, The Oreo Cookie, The Mont Blanc Diplomat Pen, Frederick’s of Hollywood Lingerie, The Slinky Toy, The Brown Paper Bag, The Milk-Bone Dog Biscuit, The Cigarette Hawk Speedboat, Silly Putty Toy, Crayola Crayons, The Harley-Davidson ElectraGlide Motorcycle, The Zippo Lighter, The Cartier Santos Watch, Coppertone Suntan Lotion, The Goodyear Blimp, The Bean Maine Hunting Boot, Green Giant Peas, The Frisbee Flying Saucer, The English Bull Terrier, The Louisville Slugger Baseball Bat, Jockey Briefs, Monopoly Board Game, The Ghurka Express Bag No. 2, The Polaroid SX-70 Camera, Ray-Ban Sunglasses, Budweiser Beer, The Hershey’s Chocolate Kiss, The Volkswagen Beetle Car, The American Express Card, M&M’s Chocolate Candies, Bayer Aspirin, Honey Bear, The Faber Mongol #2 Pencil, Fox’s U-Bet Chocolate Syrup, Lacoste Polo Shirt, Steiff Teddy Bears, Johnson’s Baby Powder, The Swiss Army Knife, Levi’s Jeans, Bass Weejun Loafers, The Hamilton Beach Model 936 Drink Mixer, Coca-Cola Soft Drink, Ohio Blue Tip Kitchen Matches, Kleenex Tissues, Barnum’s Animal Crackers, The Marklin Electric HO Gauge Model Trains, The Stetson Hat, Heinz Ketchup, The Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog, The Oil Can, LePage’s Mucilage, Tupperware Containers, El Bubble Bubblegum Cigar, Dom Perignon Champagne, The Checker Cab.

> I'm going to get a trimmer, so I want a thoughtfully designed and well made version of that. This has been my mission around my home since the start of the COVID pandemic. Upgrade all the little things around my home that annoy me or that would make my day a little bit better if they were upgraded.

The problem I have is that many things don't have a well made or thoughtfully designed version. They just have a more expensive version.

There's nothing more disappoint then spending good money on a "quality" product only to have it fall apart as fast or faster than a cheap version.

Even more infuriating is when the more expensive version is the same object but with extra unnecessary features added via software, to the detriment of usability.
That's honestly how most products are these days. The base version is lacking one feature that is present in the "premium" version and a bunch of useless add-ons are piled on to justify the expense of the "premium" version.

In a lot of cases, the base version is excluded from certain markets and only the premium is available (e.g. YouTube Premium).

Oh yeah. I've been burned a few times.

One heuristic I use is to find out where the item was manufactured. If it's China or some other place where they probably chose because of cost, it's a signal that they may have made other concessions as well. That podcast talked about this a bit. The good trimmer is made in Japan. The crappy ones are "made in a country that is arguably known for some lower quality production methods". I was guessing China, but I really don't know for certain.

That said, China can make some great things as well. For example, millions of iPhones and Macbooks are manufactured in China.

These days I either buy a specific name branded product that really doesn't have an equivalent competitor, or I go find the cheapest thing on AliExpress because most of what's available on sites like Amazon is just rebranded tat from China.
> I'm going to get a trimmer, so I want a thoughtfully designed and well made version of that.

Human fingers. Just pull the nose hairs out.

If that's what you're suggesting, you probably don't have that much nose hair.
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This is a thought-provoking essay by Dan Luu, whose essays I always find thought-provoking.

I'm surprised Dan didn't make the connection that the webs of mistrust between fiefdoms that form inside organizations as they grow are... Nash equilibria.[a]

Organizational webs of mistrust are nothing more than complicated versions of the Prisoner's Dilemma.[b]

Unless you have a CEO actively enforcing trust and collaboration, different fiefdoms naturally evolve behaviors that ensure they can survive and thrive in the face of possible betrayal by any other untrustworthy fiefdoms in the organization. We see similar behavior in natural ecosystems, which tend to evolve toward suboptimal equilibria that is robust to betrayal between groups, instead of global optima that requires perpetual honesty between them.[c] In many settings, robustness against betrayal is an evolutionary advantage.

---

[a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium

[b] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

His stuff is usually quite interesting, but in dire need of an editor. I often get lost in the details and tangents of the piece and lose the point.
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Maybe. I'm not so sure. My take is, he's trying to be thorough.

The lack the formatting sometimes makes his posts feel like a wall of uninterrupted text.

When reading his stuff, I find it helpful to put my browser in "reader" mode, which narrows text width.

2022, per https://x.com/danluu/status/1503512394126938120

I wish Dan would put dates on his posts!

The front page (danluu.com) has MM/YY on every post, at least.
I figure Dan would be an ISO-8601 guy.

I’ve gained a reputation as a sort of hipster for using YYYY-MM-DD for all dates I record, even outside of computing.

For some reason this makes me think about cooking stock. Like the liquid you use to make gravy, soups, sauces, etc. most people I know will use either a box or jar of stock or a bouillon cube. There’s nothing wrong with this. It will produce a satisfactory meal. However you can easily make stock if you cook for yourself. Simply take all the parts of vegetables and meats you would throw away (think bones and onion paper) and cover it with water in a pot and add salt and pepper if you want and boil for an hour or so. You can do it while you cook other stuff. This stock can be frozen for later. But also, it’s obviously better than the stuff from a jar or a cube. Maybe it’s because you put some effort into it, maybe it’s because there’s a complexity to all the flavors that’s removed by industrialization. But it’s a stock that works very well. And I think it’s simply it requires time. Time we often think we don’t have. Perhaps this is all an unrelated thought but I do recommend that if you enjoy cooking at home making your own stock.
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> if it's so obvious, someone at the company would have fixed the issue or another company would've come along and won based on being more efficient or better

I think there's two kind of people at any tech company. There's the kind of person who has removed an unused piece of cloud infrastructure that nobody remembered existed but whose spend was north of $50k / month, and there's the kind of person who does not believe such a thing could possibly happen.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding about both evolution and markets, which is that either one "optimizes" something. Neither needs to create a perfect outcome. An organism doesn't have to be the best, most efficient possible at getting food, it only has to be good enough to survive long enough to reproduce. A cheetah does not need to be the fastest cheetah on the plains to survive, it only has to be faster than the slowest antelope. A company does not need to make a perfect product, it only has to be just good enough to turn a profit, any profit, in order to survive.

Once you realize this everything starts to make sense. Why can accountant have errors? Because they aren't bad enough to lose customers. Why can a product be made shoddily? Because it isn't quite shoddy enough that people stop buying it. Indeed, the most optimal thing for a company, profit-wise, is to be just as shitty as possible without going out of business. Any additional resources spent on increasing quality that is not demanded by the market are, in a sense, wasted.

This hurts from an engineering perspective because we want to make things that are good, but too often customers don't actually care about how good it is, just that it is cheap and just barely good enough to be worth purchasing.

I am so interested in this submission (based on the title), but that's such a big wall of text, even the LOTR trilogy looks more manageable

If you have read it, do you regret the time you spent on it? Just trying to get some "goodreads" reviews, with or without spoilers, before committing to it...

Part of the challenge is how wide his text column is. It makes the lines hard to scan; your eye can't fall on a line just once or twice to scan it, but must keep falling, which makes the text feel more tedious. Easily fixed by narrowing the browser window, of course.
Or using the reader mode.
Often, it's the little things. Particularly with excellence. While I might be amenable to the tenets of this kind of stream-of-conciousness, this is the kind of guy I might enjoy lunch with but I'd never want to work on a team with him.
It’s just a difference in taste I think - I for one love this style of writing and the longer the wall of text the better
I enlarged the font :)
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Agreed - the edge-to-edge text can seem daunting and be a bit of a pain to read, depending on your display. I used reader mode to make it a bit more managable. Also worth noting the last ~30% of the page is two appendixes.

I think the article is worth a read, but doesn't necessarily introduce a new concept. Its basically stating that there are many broken products that you can buy, and they simply do not work. Typical wisdom says you should buy something you're not specifically good at building, or something that you're not "supposed to" build yourself because you specialize in something else. This article basically says that wisdom can be wrong and that there is value in building yourself. There are some good examples, but its definitely a position that you'd have to push to management at some companies because its a very bottom up position that many managers would not agree with.

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Yes it's worth it. Dan Luu has always been worth to read whenever I read it.

But I get it. I too have the Instagram disease and balk at long walls of text. It's just that we do need to fight that...

It's not the "Instagram disease", the page is completely unstyled and unsuited for reading. Even after using Firefox's Reader mode, the paragraphs are too dense. Some people are great writers but could benefit from a designer or editor.
> Even after using Firefox's Reader mode, the paragraphs are too dense.

If you want to argue about other aspects of his writing style, fine. But those are normal-sized paragraphs. Scrolling through in reader mode, I saw maybe a couple paragraphs that stuck out as "too long to be a paragraph," and even those are only ~5 sentences (so maybe some of his sentences are too long?)

Social media has people thinking a paragraph can only be two sentences. At a certain point, you're basically just putting a line break after every sentence.

> Social media has people thinking a paragraph can only be two sentences.

That is a straw man and extremification. Paragraphs can be longer than two sentences. Formatting is important, however, and some of Luu's paragraphs are hard to parse. You may not notice this, or you just power through it, but if you study enough design and user experience principles then you start to feel when interacting with a medium takes more energy from you than it should.

Better paragraph formatting makes you a better writer. You get better at slicing your communication into individual ideas, serving them one at a time at the reader's own pace. Your thoughts become less coupled, more clear and compact, and flow better from one to the next.

It's also just important to consider that the reader needs anchor points to avoid fatigue, and we can achieve that with minimal styling and well-formatted text.

Luu does not consider that his blog post is not read in isolation. It is part of a stack of information that a reader may consume each day, each communication inefficiency slowly adding up until the reader experiences significant cognitive drain and measurable fatigue. I also had to resize my window to discover the best width for me. I settled on the width of my cell phone, about the only platform this blog post looks readable on natively. And then, I had to resize it back my normal width to interact with hacker news and every other website on the internet. All of that adds friction and fatigue to the consumption process.

I barely engage with any social media at all. I don't have Facebook, I don't post on Instagram, Twitter, or anything else. I stick to intimate online conversations and places like hacker news where there is real, meaningful, longform discussion. Your assumption about the nature of my critique is off-base and frankly unnecessary.

Hacker News is a form of social media, regardless of whether you consider it "real, meaningful, longform discussion" as compared to other platforms.

"If you study enough design and user experience principles then you start to feel" is not quantified enough, imo. Your initial critique was that the paragraphs were "too dense," but we've established it's not necessarily that they're too long. Perhaps if you'd give an example of how you'd fix some of the paragraphs, I'd understand your concern better.

I was not defending the formatting of the page at all (that's a strawman itself). Looking at the original page in non-Reader mode, it seems like adding graphics every few paragraphs so it's not a literal wall of text would increase readability, as an alternative to making the paragraphs themselves less "dense." I'm not sure what supporting graphics would be on-topic, though, aside from maybe screenshots of some of the cited sources.

> Hacker News is a form of social media, regardless of whether you consider it "real, meaningful, longform discussion" as compared to other platforms.

I mentioned that I barely engage with the majority of the space, that doesn't have any bearing on the classification of hacker news. Though it also clearly shows the limits of "social media" as a useful descriptor.

> I was not defending the formatting of the page at all (that's a strawman itself)

I was referring to basic text formatting regarding line-breaks, and was not insinuating that you made any defense against formatting in general, I apologize if that was unclear.

You're probably right about graphics, though I understand not all writers want to deal with graphical elements. Sensible line breaks still go a long way.

Friction and fatigue in the consumption process are not necessarily a bad thing
> You get better at slicing your communication into individual ideas, serving them one at a time at the reader's own pace. Your thoughts become less coupled, more clear and compact, and flow better from one to the next.

... and you end up with your average self improvement book.

The page being unstyled is a plus, not a minus in my eyes. Far more pleasant to read than all the sites which restrict text width to a tiny column.
Decades of user interface research and design disagree with you. A handful of inline CSS rules would immediately make the content far more accessible and scannable across multiple platforms.

I am a huge proponent of minimalism. But minimalism doesn't mean doing nothing. It means doing a lot with a little.

Turning on reader mode on Firefox makes this so much easier to read, which basically means "put this into a column, please"
I disagree that it is unsuited for reading. My fav authors have paragraphs that span multiple pages- this is low calorie fare compared.

It really just depends what you are used to reading

Those familiar with the site know it’s intentional to deliver content efficiently to a wide audience.

You can’t read a long paragraph in reader mode?

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Bad styling is intentional to deliver the content to a wider audience?
You don’t recognize default HTML appearance?
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I do, and it's not the default HTML appearance but the default style of how your browser chooses to show unstyled HTML.

Just because it's the default doesn't mean it's suitable for reading and it was never thought of being that.

How exactly does unstyled HTML cater to a wider audience? That's just a non sequitur.
Because it is a smaller download, is faster to render, easier for accessibility tools, and is more likely to work in readers and browsers of all kinds.
Yeah, a single `body { max-width: 50em }` is not going to change any of that, and actually makes it more accessible to a wider audience. The entire point of typography and formatting is to make text more accessible. Lack of layout is the antithesis of that.

Then there's the separate issue of overlong paragraphs, which is simply a sign of poor writing (again making the text less accessible), unless you're trying to argue that the use of fewer <p> tags makes the page faster to load and render?

Now, I do wish that browsers had saner default styles, so one wouldn't need even that single line of CSS, but that's not the world we live in, and for whatever backwards-compatibility reason we're stuck with how things were in 1995.

> body { max-width: 50em }

I have this 16:9 screen. I'd like to use all of it, thanks.

Filling a wide screen with one column is just going to hurt your ability to read it. That's not a great desire to have.

(I'd suggest more than 50 but not a whole lot more, not nearly enough to fill a normal size screen.)

Now you’re agreeing with the main idea but you wish the default was more to your preference. Read his own words about this here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39731878

I don’t understand though. Times new Roman and clones of it are very readable fonts. It just doesn’t look like short form marketing material.

If you defend the styling by saying it's efficient, and they say you can have efficient style so that's not a good reason, they are not agreeing with your main idea.
It doesn’t work well on anything where you can’t manage the window width. My eyes have to travel too far to read the content, slowing me down.
Luu could achieve his goals while still adding basic things like padding, margins and better structuring of his paragraphs.

Absolutism on either side of this debate is purely ideological and does little to serve the user the best possible experience.

I am user who thinks I’m getting a better experience, so I think his main point is right - you are expressing your preference with the voice of the general user, and moderation.
"Better" is subjective and debating such a vague generality will get us nowhere.

Instead, I will focus on more objectively measurable aspects such as flexibility and ergonomics. You may be getting the most flexible reading experience, but you are getting the most ergonomic reading experience. You also have to put in up-front work to get a better experience, or rely on tools like Reader mode.

If that's what you prefer, that's fine. If you weren't aware, in most browsers you can access the menu bar and navigate to "View -> Page Style", and set it to "No Style".

Then you're free to add whatever styles you'd like on top. Meanwhile, the casual, less technical, non-designer user can still engage with the content in an accessible and easily parseable manner.

I don't know that the problem is short attention span. Poor communication has always been with us. I am sure Luu has compelling insights—what I was able to get through seemed interesting—but he is a poor communicator. It's not just that he presents a wall of text; his wording and his approach to communication tell me that he thinks if he just gets his thoughts recorded, that's enough. It is not enough.
It might not be enough for you, but maybe you're not the target audience. His blog is quite popular so clearly it's enough for a lot of folks.

What is "good" communication depends on the social context of the communication, the audience, etc. A novel probably shouldn't be written in the same style as a project status update document. IMO one of the downsides of people in our modern education system being drilled on the "one true way" of communicating for a small handful of contexts (position paper essays, tactical business memos) is that they begin to think that is the only way to communicate ever in any context to any audience and forget that different people have different tastes and in a lot of contexts catering to your audience's taste is what matters.

At least we're not being read to from a book called Ulysses?
True but if this is just the extent of he can do, maybe it's better that he did it than if he didn't bother to put his thoughts on paper at all.

I'm sure you'd say it's a distinction without a difference but clearly it resonates with someone and those people are able to summarize his ideas or reframe them for a broader audience.

Yeah it reads as completely unedited. Needs another pass.
I'm really curious what makes you say feel that way, if you can put it into words?

I think his style is quite particular (I think I would compare it to patio11 a little bit?), and I understand it not being everyone's cup of tea; but one thing I don't think I would ever say it feels unedited.

To me, it feels _very_ edited — yes, there are occasional sentences with five sub-clauses in them, but they all feel very _deliberate_, and serve a particular stylistic goal.

>I think his style is quite particular (I think I would compare it to patio11 a little bit?)

I find them quite different, patio11 is good about introducing a topic and easing you into, even if it's something you might not be initially interested in. Luu's writing isn't inviting at all. I'm sure it appeals to folks already familiar with his work, but there is nothing to draw in a new or not particularly interested reader.

I struggle to find a stylistic goal here:

> Yossi's post about how an unusually unreasonable person can have outsized impact in a dimension they value at their firm also applies to impact outside of a firm. Kyle Kingsbury, mentioned above, is an example of this. At the rates that I've heard Jepsen is charging now, Kyle can bring in what a senior developer at BigCo does (actually senior, not someone with the title "senior"), but that was after years of working long hours at below market rates on an uncertain endeavour, refuting FUD from his critics (if you read the replies to the linked posts or, worse yet, the actual tickets where he's involved in discussions with developers, the replies to Kyle were a constant stream of nonsense for many years, including people working for vendors feeling like he has it out for them in particular, casting aspersions on his character, and generally trashing him). I have a deep respect for people who are willing to push on issues like this despite the system being aligned against them but, my respect notwithstanding, basically no one is going to do that. A system that requires someone like Kyle to take a stand before successful firms will put effort into correctness instead of correctness marketing is going to produce a lot of products that are good at marketing correctness without really having decent correctness properties (such as the data sync product mentioned in this post, whose website repeatedly mentions how reliable and safe the syncing product is despite having a design that is fundamentally broken).

I'm sorry, this is too much for me. I don't understand what this paragraph is about. Too many abstract nouns; "correctness" lost its meaning for me. If this is a parody or a joke, then it flew way over my head. Was it supposed to recreate "a constant stream of nonsense"? If so, it missed the mark.

It's like Infinite Jest set in Silicon Valley.

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For me two things jump out:

Giant paragraphs (hard for the eyes to keep focus).

Sparse amount of headers (contributes to the flow and easier to scan, to see if it's something I'm interested in).

For me it's not the text but the (lack of) formatting, like it's best viewed on a 640x480 screen from the 90's.
And if that's the goal, there's some very simple ways to achieve that wither through CSS or even just plain HTML.
>But I get it. I too have the Instagram disease and balk at long walls of text. It's just that we do need to fight that...

It's not even that, Dan's design decisions for the page make it actively annoying to read and that's before you even consider the writing decisions he's made. Presumably he's writing for an existing audience and feels no need to ease you into the material, but that's a huge turn off for folks coming from sites like this that aren't already primed to read it.

This subject is interesting to me, sorry for the rant.

Writers could try to split up their work to better appeal to an audience that does quick scans, then reads where it matters.

This article may be great, but there’s not even any section headings, so I’m not able to gauge my own interest.

In our era where there is so much content to consume and where so much of it is just hot garbage or advertising, I don’t want to spend time deeply reading everything in hopes that I care about it.

I need to be able to asses that at a glance, then dive in if I deem it meaningful enough.

Writers should probably change their style to accommodate their audience (if they care about really wide reach)

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Speculating here but I'd say a big part of the reason Dan Luu has as big a reach as he has is that he isn't the kind of writer who'll change his style to accommodate the audience that just wants to do a quick scan.
Maybe, but I don’t know Dan. Never read anything written by them (besides this)

I’d like to read deeply about something interesting, but with so much LLM slop around, I’m much less willing to dive right into a long article.

Writers could try to split up their work to better appeal to an audience that does quick scans, then reads where it matters.

That was one of the original visions behind hypertext - that it would not only link documents together, but provide a way to summarize the content at varying levels of detail, allowing up-down traversal rather than just lateral links. MIP mapping for text, basically.

We're starting to see a bit of a revival of that idea, where language models generate summaries at the paragraph level that readers can either browse quickly or use as a jumping-off point into the underlying original content. This page seems like a good application for that.

> so much content to consume

Well, I'd say part of the problem is you think of yourself as a content consumer. How things are called can be important.

We all are content consumers. It’s not a problem, just a fact.

You consumed my content (my comment) and are now creating your own.

What you spend your attention on is much more important now than even 10 years ago.

Actually I'd call your comment an opinion, not "content".

Unless, of course, you're commenting here in order to create "engagement" for monetary gain. But it does look to me like you're trying to have a conversation, which is an entirely different animal.

Those are not mutually exclusive.

We are both creating content which hacker news serves up to people who read comments. We’re not the only ones this conversation is seen by.

Hacker news is, among other things, a platform for YC to find talent and advertise its startups. People come here both for the posts and comments.

The content we create and post here have clear commercial purpose even though we as the creators don’t necessarily benefit or care.

Welcome to the internet.

You're talking about the goals of the platform hosting us for free.

I'm talking about our personal motivation, regardless of platform. And I'm trying to say that when the motivation is to 'create content' the result is worthless, and I think you're doing yourself a disservice accepting that.

Sure, but motivation and outcome don’t need to line up.

I may not be writing this comment to create content (I’m actually really enjoying this discussion.)

But that doesn’t change that I am creating content for the HN platform.

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I respect committing to zero formatting but just one "max-width: 600px" would make this so much easier to read.
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I opened the devtools to narrow the page.

Given how much more aggravation I go through getting lots of sites that _do_ have formatting to contort into a shape I find comfortable to read, I found it hard to mind much.

>I am so interested in this submission (based on the title), but that's such a big wall of text, even the LOTR trilogy looks more manageable

I came here before clicking the link and was all set to be like "just read it" but it really does seem designed to be as unreadable as possible, both the layout and colors and the writing itself. I'm sure he's probably writing for an existing audience, but even the writing doesn't seem to be design to draw the reader in or be particularly accessible for people who aren't already primed to read it.

It's not long. Excluding the footnotes, it's ~5000 words, a 10-20 minute read.
Complex ideas are inherently hard to read. If you shy away from anything that's complex, you're just limiting yourself to consuming only the most simplistic thought.

Case in point: the LotR trilogy is an absurdly low bar for manageability. Literally millions of people have read those books. There are certainly different levels of comprehension, but I'd venture most people who read these books were able to at least follow the plot well enough to be entertained by it. I read them when I was maybe 12, and that's not me claiming to be some sort of prodigy--they are very easy to read. If that level of reading is unapproachable to you, I would suggest that's a problem with you that you would benefit from working on.

The original link is a bit dry but otherwise not a challenging read.

I can't read it because he made the website unreadable. Kind of interesting considering his subject matter.
try this alt stylesheet https://ddanluu.com/nothing-works
This is so much better! It basically makes the same changes as Firefox Reader's mode does.
Dan's website is the only one where I have to use Safari's Reader mode
this dude's MO is long ass essays
It's quite good, I used my browser's "Reader Mode" to be able to read it though.
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I've read about 50% and really like it so far.

Also, limiting width and centering text from JS console greatly improved the readability:

  $('main').style.width = '600px';
  $('main').style.margin = '0 auto';
Yep, a Stylus stylesheet like this turns his site from unusable into pleasant:

``` main { width: 800px; margin: 0 auto; } ```

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My conspiracy theory is that layout is broken on purpose, to filter the audience.
It's on the front page with a little over 100 votes. Up votes are basically saying it's worth it...

If it wasn't worth reading it wouldn't have been up voted

Lol okay, but mine was the first comment and second upvote, so it was pretty empty back then here, and it was still at the top of the "new" page.
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Firefox Reader mode makes it much nicer to read. The quality of the actual article is somewhat "meh", passed the time but nothing surprising or that interesting.
I usually reduce the width of my browser window, but reader mode is a great idea too. I like the minimal aesthetic, but text width is so important to readability that danluu really should add a max width.
upvotes tell you that people find it useful. we have ai now to effectively summarize the text if you want to avoid reading the whole thing.

this is a solved problem

It Was worth the time/effort for me.
Only skimmed it...but yeah, not worth reading. Unless you're one of today's 10K, it's mostly obvious stuff. And if there's any real structure or "big picture" to the article, I couldn't spot it.
It's interesting. But it rambles and doesn't draw any actionable conclusions, beyond "Sometimes it's a good idea to be annoying and push back if you think things are going in a bad direction."

Essentially he's talking about enshittification, but he doesn't break down the core issue - which is that US corporate culture is authoritarian and narcissistic. So the true underlying motivation in many interactions is assertion of superiority for sellers, and the creation of an illusion of superiority for buyers.

Both are entirely orthogonal to objective quality.

As a crazy fast reader I liked it but now that I think about it, problems with product quality were a major preoccupation of the 1970s. There is a triangle between

  inflation <-> poor quality <-> shortages
in that these all stem from the same root and the proportion in which they manifest depend on the system (e.g. in Soviet Russia they could legislate prices but couldn't legislate availability of products) It was the decade of Ralph Nader. See

https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nothing-Works-Anthropology-Origin...

https://www.amazon.com/Out-Crisis-W-Edwards-Deming/dp/052130...

https://www.amazon.com/Culture-Narcissism-American-Diminishi...

A few themes could be broken out, not least "mongo sucks" (I never worked at a company that didn't trust the database they used at all until I worked at one that used mongo) and a meditation on "buy" vs "build" that leans heavily towards build. (When I hear the word "integration" I reach for my keyboard and code up a 15-line python script while management is on hold waiting to hear what the "call us" price is)

> When I hear the word "integration" I reach for my keyword and code up a 15-line python script while management is on hold waiting to hear what the "call us" price is

Stop doing that. Management wants someone to blame when things go wrong. Don't be that one for no extra compensation.

Ralph Nader is a saint and democrats need to ask why 200K democrats stayed home in Florida in 2000, not why Nader got 3%…
Reader mode.
I mean, yes? It certainly beats reading social media posts and outlines particular instantiations of a cultural blindspot.
AI-summarize that shit!
You could dump it into an LLM and ask for a summary.
FWIW I ran LLama 3.3 70B locally for fun, which took about 50 minutes thanks to not having a Mac nor several 4090s, and it gave me this:

The essay argues that the efficient markets hypothesis, which states that markets enforce efficiency and eliminate inefficiencies, is not always true in practice. The author provides numerous examples from various industries, including tech, shipping, and accounting, where companies and individuals have struggled to find reliable and high-quality products or services due to information asymmetry and market failures.

The essay suggests that this is often due to cultural norms and expectations that prioritize short-term gains over long-term quality and reliability. As a result, companies may be forced to "build" rather than "buy" solutions in order to get what they need, which can be costly and inefficient. However, the author also notes that building instead of buying is not a panacea, and that dysfunctional teams and organizations can still produce poor products.

Ultimately, the essay argues that trust, both within and between companies, is essential for creating efficient and effective markets, and that cultural norms and expectations play a significant role in shaping market outcomes.

You should do a substack "Shorter Dan Luu"

From reading the comments here, you'd do well.

Heh, don't think I'll quit my day job just yet.
I gave it to gemini 2 and asked for a bullet point summary. People don't like this, but it got me through meat of the article in 2 minutes.
One thing not mentioned, but I've seen time and time again, is if you buy something, you buy what you think you need/want. You make a decision and live with it.

But if you build it, you can learn that what you wanted wasn't what you thought you needed, and the build can adapt and change to meet that actual need. A bought item/tool will do what it is designed to do, and can sometimes be shoehorned into what you needed, but often what you needed wasn't what you thought you needed.

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I have reached the age (40+) and I need much fewer than I thought I'd need. I think the best way to reduce the number of lower quality buys is just to buy less, way less, while keep a large amount of $$ float in the market. Yes the CAD or USD also de-value in time but IMO they devalue a lot slower than most of the products on the market.

And when I buy I only buy second hand stuffs with a deep discount. I'm glad that a used workstation lives for 2+ years (in fact, all of my second handed workstations live for 2+ years for just $500 and less).

The other advantage to buying used is you avoid cradle-death along with the discount. Then, if it works great, you might consider buying that one new when the time comes.
Yeah exactly. Although personally I'd be hesitant to buy a completely new Dell 32GB mobile workstation :P $Wifie is going to hate me. But I do need one with > 16GB because I will need to emulate some OS.
I thought this was the most interesting point in the article:

>>>

People often think that having a high degree of internal distrust is inevitable as a company scales, but people I've talked to who were in upper management or fairly close to the top of Intel and Google said that the companies had an extended time period where leadership enforced trustworthiness and that stamping out dishonesty and "bad politics" was a major reason the company was so successful, under Andy Grove and Eric Schmidt, respectively. When the person at the top changed and a new person who didn't enforce honesty came in, the standard cultural norms that you see at the upper levels of most bi

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Earlier notable thread in 2022, 518 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30679935

The title could use a [2022], as that seems the year it was originally posted.

People with large swathes of equity in a company want people with near zero equity to act like they will be getting C-level rich off of their wage/salary if the company's business plan hits.

Founders are not desperate for talent. They are desperate for labor will shoulder vastly unequal labor for vastly underpaid compensation.

Capital always pushes for slaves. Labor can only push for using their smart phone during their bathroom break and not giving a shit about the final product as its success does not offer labor truly valued compensation.

Minimum wage is a thing but maximum wage is not in a civilization run by capital.

> The good accountants are typically somewhat expensive, but they're generally not charging the highest rates and only a small percentage of somewhat expensive accountants are good.

This is an interesting observation that I see a lot of value in. Not everyone is money-driven in the same way, and there's a lot of talent that is willing to turn down additional money or additional work because they are happy enough. They have reached a local maxima, and while there may be other maxima, those are not guaranteed, and going for them could result in overall loss.

Market efficiency follows a lot of the same laws as evolution, and I think the author identifies the same fallacy many do about evolution: that there is some implied natural progression to perfection or negentropy.

You don't need to be perfectly efficient to survive; you don't even need to be the most efficient. You just need to be efficient enough in your niche to make it another day. As environments/markets change, the measure for efficiency does as well. Adapt or die.

The problem with build vs buy in general is that evaluating software is hard and there are a ton of variables whose values are often only clear in hindsight. Not only does the thing have to work, it has to work in a way that will scale with how you use it. Also, when comparing it to build, you have to know whether you have the right expertise (and interest) in-house to do what you want. There's also straight up timing considerations. There's really no formula to this, but at the end of the day you have to acknowledge that there's always going to be a slight misalignment of incentives between you and your vendor. You need a working product; the vendor wants your money. People want to believe these end up being the same thing, but especially for startups that aren't thinking past their next sales cycle this simply isn't true.

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> Talking purely abstractly, it's hard to settle the debate,

Hm, the mistake in the abstract is pretty obvious and is acknowledge in the theoretical discussions of all the "perfect efficiencies" theories - real life is never perfect! So sure, at the superficial/cocktail party level, you'll always have a lot of folks ignoring the obvious and repeating this silly mistakes. But then it's just as easy to do the same when looking at the specifics. I mean, the original example came from defending a specific obvious error?

It's also not hard to find flaws in the specifics: like with the air conditioner friend "missing expertise", you don't need to have any expertise to look for such a directly measurable (even wihout instruments) stuff such as noise level! I mean, your friend could've gone and listened to different units working if this information is not covered anywhere online.

Even though the fundamental issue of the challenge to find relevant reliable information is indeed very hard, there are so many force working against a poor guy at any level of actual expertise of said guy (so the post is right on the money here)!

I think on the point of build vs buy, what a lot of "buy" people neglect is that you can often cut a ton of use cases out of the product that you're paying for, and when you cut those use cases out then build becomes a really cheap proposition versus buying. Plus, when you buy you still have to maintain internal staff to manage the product. If you build, those people can also work on other things that advance the plot for whatever you're building elsewhere in the company.

If you have to make payroll and you're not interested in handling payroll business cases in your core business, absolutely buy payroll software. But if you need to spin up containers incidentally to your core business, maybe consider wrapping the same stuff Podman or Docker wraps if it makes sense. Going down a level of abstraction in this way can allow you to work more efficiently than if you just used those tools off-the-shelf.

I'm very much into buying things that work well... to me the trick is to ruthlessly research what actually works well, and not be biased by what is new or more expensive. Most often these end up being older, cheaper, things built with a simple timeless design and no extra complexity that leads to unreliability.

Some examples:

Maytag 575 commercial grade residential washer and dryer

1980-early 90s Mercedes W124 or W201 diesels

1980s Volvos (mentioned in article)

IBM Model M keyboard

Military/commercial security marketed heavy nylon and wool clothing

Vintage Yamaha solid state electrical devices (or anything 1970s ish with real hardwood cases, and discrete components you can test and replace)

1970s professional grade Pioneer studio monitor headphones (e.g. Monitor 10s, etc.)

I've often had people accuse me of being a 'hipster' into vintage stuff that is impractical because of the aesthetic. In such cases I usually could not convince them that I just had what worked best- I didn't care about the age or aesthetic, but some good stuff happens to be old.

For services, companies, and products I recommend reading every 1 star review you can before choosing. For actual good stuff, the 1 star reviews will all be petty: they got what they paid for and it was perfect but are mad or confused about something else, or they just had random bad luck. I keep forgetting to do this, and everytime I have an awful experience, someone else had it before me and warned everyone but I didn't remember to look.

>Vintage Yamaha solid state electrical devices (or anything 1970s ish with real hardwood cases, and discrete components you can test and replace)

Too bad active (especially active digital, for anechoic factory calibration and room correction) is definitely the way to go these days. But as I said in other posts, Genelec is the brand to go for in this space; ME Geithain might be a good contender if you're in Germany.

Some other examples to complement your list:

A modern Mazda (from after Ford sold its shares back, i.e. made in Hiroshima) after a lot of research; including the software vulnerabilities side, quality of its engines and manual transmissions.

Been buying AMD for almost 15 years now, ever since I learned of Intel's ubiquitous anti-competitive shenanigans and consumer disdain (in the form of locked non-K CPUs, constant socket changes or switching to non-solder TIM with Ivy Bridge).

Rocking an Eizo CG, one of the last with a Panasonic panel with polarizing filter and generally rock solid build quality.

Key is knowing the rare good technically minded reviewers: TFTCentral for monitors, https://www.spinorama.org ASR/Erin, AudioXpress, Fidelity Online/Sound&Recording for audio (as long as you know your theory and the various physical/psychoacoustic limits), JonnyGuru (RIP) for PSUs, Chips&Cheese (and before it RealWorldTech) for CPUs, notebookcheck.net for laptops, etc...

> active (especially active digital, for anechoic factory calibration and room correction) is definitely the way to go these days

An amplifier is just an amplifier... wouldn't that be something better done with software than replacing the whole amplifier?

I think I'm a "midphile" and not an audiophile. I don't want to listen to music on a cheap laptop speaker or a smartphone like most people I know do, but a high end 1970s hifi system sounds as good as a modern one to me, and I cannot tell the difference.

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Another big benefit of these older devices is customizability and repairability. I am working to refurbish an MPC1000 right now (drum machine) and the fact that it is repairable at all was a big factor in choosing to sell a newer, nicer device in favor of an older one that wasn't fully working.

Not everything can be treated that way, like a phone or a laptop I would prefer to be no more than 5 years old. But so many things don't need to be terribly modern in order to work well.

One issue is: for new stuff, you cannot know yet if it's actually good. It's only once it has withstood the test of time that you can be reasonably sure.

> Vintage Yamaha solid state electrical devices

Yamaha are still producing modern amps that are very good quality wise compared to their price point: the "ToP-ART" (that's how they call it) basis they use in many amp is actually good stuff and has been tested and analyzed by many objective metrics. They may not be simple but they sure as heck do sound very good (and they've got a "loundess" control, which basically only Yamaha or $$$$$ Macintosh amps or preamps do have and nothing beats that for people who also need to listen at lower volumes later at night when everybody, including the neighbors, do sleep).

Overall I'd say Japanese companies still know how to build quality stuff: cars, amps, digital pianos, laser printers (even if even Brother and Epson can be criticized on some points, we're far from the turds companies like HP or Lexmark have become), tools (I love all the Makita tools and power tools), etc.

When it comes to music there are objective measurements and there are companies out there still building amazing stuff, punching way above their pricepoint.

One could lament about the cost cutting on the material (like plastic knobs) on entry level Yamaha amps, but the innards is actually good stuff. They also come with long warranties (two years but you can register your stuff online and get 2 to 3 additional years of warranty).

I have maybe 15 IBM Model keyboards but... I'm using since many years a HHKB Pro JP. And HHBK are, well, japanese keyboards (it took the japanese to create the amazing Topre switches).

That's the thing: sadly by only using older tech you're giving up on something. Amps from the 70s are not competing with modern stuff. Speakers from the 70s and 80s do age. Cars are going to be less secure and consume more fuel (I know: I've got two "youngtimers" cars from the late 80s).

Kitchen knifes? Japanese.

But I agree that quality overall has gone down a lot and that it takes time to find quality brands / models.

FWIW I paired DALI (a little Danish brand) loudspeakers with a modern Yamaha amp and I couldn't be happier.

P.S: although I do have family in Japan I'm not japanese ;)

Newer amps might be better but I can’t hear the difference in the sound quality myself, and the older ones look and feel a lot nicer.

Newer cars are definitely safer- but I don’t find them nicer to drive or more economical. You can get an 80 VW rabbit that gets 50mpg, or a Mercedes 190D that gets close to that. Both are really fun cars to drive. Modern cars are much heavier and lower emissions- which ultimately cancels out the improved engine efficiency.

unfortunately the build quality of some Japanese products is declining, due to temporary migrant underpaid factory workers who have no stake in the company (and increasingly terrible working conditions). Not blaming the individuals, I'm blaming those in power who made these choices.
We need a system based on verifiable proofs that will help the society to streamline selection of long running working products that will push the businesses to optimize their processes and fight for the economy share. Long working products will signal that producers can not just sell the same inferior products and reap profits. As a cause-effect it will make available many elements of the society to explore new economic models and embark on a journey in search of their application. And since everyone wants to keep consuming it will give a healthy economically-based incentive for the majority of the population to start producing tangible value.
> For example, in my social circles, there have been two waves of people migrating from iPhones to Android phones over the past few years. Both waves happened due to Apple PR snafus which caused a lot of people to think that iPhones were terrible at something when, in fact, they were better at that thing than Android phones. Luckily, iPhones aren't strictly superior to Android phones and many people who switched got a device that was better for them because they were previously using an iPhone due to good Apple PR, causing their errors to cancel out.

Uncomfortably reminiscent of politics.

I’m curious about the specifics here— what were the PR snafus? And what was better about the Androids?
Core properties of well functioning markets is information symmetry and transparency. I don't think this describes a lot of consumer goods. Even consumers who want to do their research will find that there isn't enough information available.

Personally, I feel the responsibility of government in a capitalist system, is ensuring the free market is actually a free market. I'd love it if there was a government agency charged with improving the above mentioned problem of information asymmetry and lacking transparency. For example, when I buy a fridge I'm happy to spend more now, if it means I spend less over the lifetime of the item, but determining the cost per year for every fridge on the market is a huge task for an individual.

The average life of a consumer good anymore is sometimes measured in months. By the time you know the compressor on a particular fridge model is junk that model is no longer sold.

I have found with the exception of very expensive brands, 20k dollar fridges etc. they are all junk and paying more just gets you useless features like wifi connectivity or a tablet in the door that will be part of a botnet in 3 months.

Shopping without researching goes hand in hand with a fool and his money. For the typical consumer, visiting consumerreports.com and picking one of their top recommendations would solve a majority of these problems.
How different does that work out from just taking the first few results in the storefront or from a generic product search?

The problem is the esoteric domain knowledge that things like consumerreports doesn't catch - for example, the way they rank cars has lots to do with minor problems detected after buying a new one, but most people just want to know "if I buy this, will it just work without thought for ten years" and that's much harder to know without waiting ten years.

And with things like toilets you may get them ranked based on how well they flush golf balls (even though nobody shits golfballs, if you do you have other problems).

And plumbers might rank them on installability, ease of repair, etc, when all you want is one that works and keeps working and doesn't ever back up. https://terrylove.com/crtoilet.htm has to be read with an eye to that.

The main thing that review searching and research can find is things to avoid - it's much harder to have it find things you should seek out.

The thing is, how do you know which research is good or not? Is trusting a website good enough? I really doubt. BTW I do agree that we need to do some research beforehand, but with a lot of products it's difficult or impossible.
The same way it's always been known: brand reputation and personal experience. Good examples are NFTs and cryptocoins. They have earned their online reputations as jokes and exotic investments. If I offered you a job that paid in NFTs and bonuses in spicecoins, you would be a complete fool to accept it.
Fools aren't the only one buying without research, else advertising and marketing wouldn't exisit. The average consumer's inability to fairly compare products is key in the current economy.
The most expensive thing in this work is human attention. Ie somebody has to give a shit so the thing works well.
Reading this, I realized a reason why I try to move as much of my computing life into Emacs as possible: because having full control over a, perhaps inferior, Elisp application does result in a better experience, as I have full control over everything.

At times I would think that my motive to do this was purely superficial (for fun, masochism, idealistic purity, etc.), but perhaps the software world is such a market for lemons that the best one can do is put all the watermELons they can get ahold of in their Emacs cart and go their way.

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To me this brings to mind Eliezer's Inadequate Equilibria(https://intelligence.org/equilibriabook/ ), which goes on explaining how these non-optimal, but stable situations arise all around us in societies.

Especially the part how everyone can see the inefficiencies, but there is no (easy, non-coordinated) way to fix them.

Because most people will buy the $100 thing over the $130 thing even though the $130 thing is better made.
Yes, and then they throw it out 2 years later and buy a new one.

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

— Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms

This trope was a slight exaggeration then and is basically false now. It exists in the modern world mostly to validate purchasing decisions of the middle class.

In an industrial world where most things made in volume are quite cheap relative to incomes quantifiable results per dollar plateau very quickly and beyond that you're mostly for emotion, brand, signaling, etc.

People default to cheap not because they're stupid but because "buy the cheapest thing that will work" delivers very good results when applied to all of one's purchasing. It's the index fund of personal finance. You can do better with specialist knowledge or techniques but that doesn't scale.

Usually true, I agree. But there are a few quality brands. Lexus cars, for example, go forever.

Struggling to name another quality. Maybe some technical/ outdoor clothing brands.

Anybody got any suggestions?

Toyota and Subaru are just as reliable yet much cheaper https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-s...
I was going to say, I would really need to see an examination that a Lexus was more cost effective option over a car lifetime vs a Toyota.
I got 10 years out of my most recent Orvis jacket.

That said, I had in to the tailor a couple of times to clean up some tears in the fabric lining.

I wear that thing every day, 9-10 months out of the year.

That one replaced an earlier Orvis jacket, daily wear (even through one cool-ish summer we had down here in So Cal). The jacket is fine, the cuffs are a bit worn. I could have probably had a tailor trim them with leather and got several more years out of it.

My current jacket is identical to the previous one. I managed to find a "new old stock" version of it.

I really like the jacket (as you can guess). It's a "ranger" style, nylon shell, fabric liner, big pockets on the outside, with hand inserts as well, big pockets on the inside, other little pockets I don't use (what do folks put in those shoulder pockets?), zip up hood, jacket has zipper and buttons and a waist draw tie. It will keep the wet off, but soak through in driving rain, which is rare enough to not be an issue.

If it's really cold, I have another long term jacket from LL Bean, or I could just layer under this thing. The LL Bean jacket has not seen substantial wear like the Orvis one has.

My Jeep Grand Cherokee is over 10 years old, and I'm of the mind to keep it as long as I can get parts for it vs buying a new one at $60-80K. I love this thing. It's in excellent shape. The interior controls are all in great shape. Most anyone can keep a motor running and such, it's the interior comforts that drive folks away and are costly to fix. Mine are good, all the buttons button, knobs knob, etc.

Jeeps are not renowned for their liability ratings, but many Jeep owners keep them for a long time.

Though I did just notice my cargo cover has some rubber that's likely disintegrating (it IS 11 years old...), so I may try to hunt that down and replace it.

> Jeeps are not renowned for their liability ratings, but many Jeep owners keep them for a long time.

Textbook survivorship bias :)

I disagree. There's plenty of cheaply made stuff that doesn't last very long, and other brands that focus on lasting quality, where stuff lasts a very long time. This is mostly evident in items that get a lot of use.
Yes, and it doesn't just apply to durable goods. Try doing comparison shopping between Costco and a dollar store. I guarantee you pretty much everything at Costco will be cheaper on a per-unit basis than the dollar store. So why do people shop at dollar stores? Because they can't afford the bigger up-front prices of buying at Costco!

Oh, and pretty much all of the durable goods sold at Costco will be much better quality and longer-lasting than the crap they sell at a dollar store, so that stuff follows the Vimes law as well.

I always liked the Boots Theory of Economic Unfairness. Thanks for that!

I find reading his stuff unpleasant, because of the formatting, but the content is usually worth it, so I can switch on Reader Mode.

As far as the subject goes, I used to work for a world-renowned super-high-Quality corporation, and was heavily involved in what it takes to make Really Good Stuff.

It is painful. I think most people here (anywhere, really) would refuse to work that way. It takes almost military Discipline.

But the end result is usually really good, and expensive. That little bit of extra Quality actually adds a fair amount to the bottom line, and drastically reduces the customer base.

Most folks that get really rich, do so, by making acceptable-quality stuff, at a fairly low price, and selling lots of them.

Making top-Quality stuff can make you feel good (and maybe arrogant), but it won't make the kind of money that selling dross does.

You may be interested in Dan Luu's own postings on this theory: https://mastodon.social/@danluu/111068309548746696
Dan Luu is missing the issue of food deserts. If you live in a food desert and you can’t afford a car then you’re not bringing home 50lb bags of beans and rice, you’re feeding yourself Doritos and instant noodles from the gas station convenience store. Never mind bringing home fresh meats and veggies!

Those are both more expensive and less healthy than cooking your own food.

I wish sites like this would develop a shorthand for things like the boot analogy and automatically replace the text with the shorthand. It's an interesting analogy the first time you hear it, but it's not as applicable to everything situation that people pretend that it is.
How do I know the $130 version is any better? Formally good brands have been cost cut to death and can be just as bad or worse as the cheap version. Only difference is the manufacturer collects a higher margin on the perceived product superiority.

There was a time where you knew a Craftsman tool was worth a premium price.

Resale value is probably a better metric, if it's $130 new and $100 second hand while the other one is $100 new and sub-$50 second hand that'll be a fairly good sign that it at least works.

It's still not 100% but it'd at least mean you're going to be out less money in the end if it's a dud for you.

I don't know why you got downvoted, but this is probably the ONLY one metrics that makes some sense.
Hah! It's upvoted now but I was really confused by it too tbh and I usually am not; guessing it was either less coherent than I thought and/or someone misread it entirely.
I've once was looking for top-performance windows laptop. Bought a nice Asus ROG M16 for $2500. Expensive? Sure!

But they did cost-cutting, put a crappy wifi card from Media-Tech, which resulted in a daily BSOD. Bought Intel card for $25 instead to fix this issue.

And that's about everything. Take a $50k car and you'll find same cost cutting measures!

>Take a $50k car and you'll find same cost cutting measures!

My step mom bought an expensive Cadillac a few years ago when she retired, the electronically actuated glove box has never really worked well and eventually got to where it wouldn't open at all. The whole thing is a bunch of plastic parts that move together to release one side of the glove box and gravity is supposed make it slowly drop down, but the side that it releases is the far side from the motor that's actuating it, and due to slack in all the plastic parts it doesn't actuate enough to actually release it. It takes like an hour to tear it apart so that you can shave down the catch. Cadillac has had the car for months at a time to fix it and was unable to and also unable to get a new glove box assembly. One day me and my son tore it apart and just shaved the part down ourselves, something neither of the service notices for that common issue recommended.

Cars reveal a lot about this but it's not really specific to cars. Ad-ridden "smart" TVs, etc. The hacker mindset is not really special nowadays as everybody recognizes dumbing-down and cheapening in technology. Hackers used to like having an OS with a `sysctl` for every little tunable for the same reason that anybody should be able to change the spark plugs or battery in your car without spending an hour removing two cowlings and an air intake hose because everything is so tightly packed. My 2014 model car has two separate LCD screens for the driver, yet somehow the interface to deal with a problem is still an idiot light, or wipers waving out codes, and me borrowing somebody's OBD2 scanner. Resetting the battery management system, or the oil change involves obscure codes like pressing pedals or switches in a certain way as if I am trying to open a drug courier's secret compartment, and even then, I do not even have an option of knowing what the oil change interval has been set to. Forget about anything like a live readout, or talkback to my key remote so that I can know that my engine has started. It's these kinds of design issues that are presented as condescending black boxes. It is insulting when Python is taught to schoolchildren now. These things should be performed with care to completion in the face of economic pressure.
Yep! Eventually you might just give up and pick a medium cost one that seems to be OK. Top quality products are like lottery nowadays.

I paid $100+ for a Logitech mouse and thought it is a good enough price, but it broke down in just a few months. Fortunately they gave me a second one, but I don't know how long it lives!

This gets so exaggerated online especially if you rely on reddit to figure out what to get they always recommend the one that is 10x as expensive and they insist cheaper things won't last or work but it almost never is my experience with the cheaper ones when I end up getting them. Maybe it starts out true but the cheaper ones eventually get good enough

It's the same with cell phones the claim is iPhone/pixel will last way longer than the cheap ones but i feel like this get less and less true, not that the quality is going down on the good ones but I know people who are on their 5th year of a $150 one and no problems

Usually of you sort by the price 10 products it is a safe bet to get third cheapest. Good enough.
Expands beyond that really, people assume they need more than they do.

A TV stuffed with features sounds great even if they'd prefer a TV that does the bare minimum but takes less than a minute to start up

An SUV because of the one time every year or two where they may need a bigger vehicle (and would be better off renting a van)

A smartphone they can't use with one hand that doesn't fit in their pocket

Sometimes the $130 thing is not better.

Take barbecue gloves. Yes, you can buy all sorts of varieties. Pitt Boss, Crate and Barrel, and others sell gloves in the $30 range. These gloves have enough heat resistance that you can pull a steel handled pan right out of the oven.

Know what works even better and is more durable for half the cost? Welding gloves. You can buy gloves rated to over 1K Fahrenheit for less than $20. Now you've cut your cost but also have the added ability if you wish to rearrange burning coals BY HAND.

I think that one of the things we do in this consumerist society is to buy things that look good instead of things that are functional. You aren't going to find much tupperware in a professional kitchen. What you WILL find are Cambro containers, heating dishes, and a variety of generic food storage containers. They are cooking their food in heavy walled pots and stainless steel pans with metal implements. Most people could throw out about 80% of their cooking pots and pans and never miss any of them. At least baking vessels are far more task-dependent.

Is a Le Creuset dutch oven pretty? Sure. Is it functionally better than a generic cast iron dutch oven? No. And of the two, the cast iron dutch oven is the one where you can buy once and have your great-great grandkids fight about who gets to keep it, because the Le Creuset will almost certainly have developed defects in the ceramic by then. On the flip side, a $300 refurbished Vitamix will beat the pants off of any off-the-shelf blender and last longer, too. But then, that's a professional product.

If only $130 thing is better made, not with better marketing!

You never know if more pricey thing is actually better and will last more. It can have a feeling to last more, but not the actual quality.

Nowadays almost everything is a crap with fake positive reviews.

The problem is that evaluating quality is nigh impossible these days.

So right over me right now I have this big LED light/ceiling fan combination. I've owned I think 4 of them so far, in 3 different kinds.

All 3 kinds look somewhat different yet are built obviously from the same base for the electronics, though those vary somewhat. One model didn't reverse, one does. One model has RGB lighting. Some go by RF and some go by IR. But overall the electronics seem to come from the same place in slightly different flavors.

They're all random chinese brands, old ones tend to disappear and get replaced with a slightly newer ones.

And the problem is that at some point, something in the LED driver of the first 3 died. I tried replacing the chip, but it's some particular weird model that can't be found anywhere online.

At this point I'm half-seriously considering doing my own LED/fan driver board, because it's getting ridiculous. The 4th one is holding up so far though.

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but is that true? you're standing in target, looking at air fryers. they're all priced differently. how do you know which is the good one? is it really the more expensive one? highly doubt it. and it's the same almost with everything now. price carries a very low signal.
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Honestly, I'd probably look at Wirecutter and Cooks Illustrated, both of which I have subscriptions to. I'm not going to trust them on every product I might buy but for something like air fryers they're probably not going to steer me too far wrong.
Specifically for kitchen items, America's Test Kitchen is hard to beat.
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Agreed. Even if no site is perfect, some of them are a lot better than just picking what's most expensive or gives the best vibe for whatever reason.
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thanks for the tip!
Then explain luxury goods?
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Customer reviews and professional advice are still not solved - and still a huge opportunity in my mind.

1) Customer reviews would in theory help people choose better and fast. There will always be the issue of difference of opinions but we are far from a point where this would be the only problem.

2) Professional advice is great but as anyone who has been around the hiring of consultants can tell you, if you are not competent in a field then it's hard to choose someone who is. And beyond that, diligence and listening are not uniformly distributed.

Until these are solved, the goal of the firm is to "sell something that people buy" instead of "sell something great".

It's interesting that in a large part, Amazon makes its distribution business out of this. If you watch what you buy and for the most part, you can reliably and easily return duds. There is some, poor customer feedback on the site, AND there is very easy returns. And that still does not solve the issue of items that are difficult to test good or dud such as a battery or an electronic device where it might be a while until the problem appears. Costco is also in this strategy with a very long return window that mostly will give you time to notice whether the item does the job or not.

The idea that competition alone solves this problem ignores that this is an incomplete information system.

I really, really want to buy products that work well, hassle-free and last a very long time, and I'm willing to pay premium for it. But how? Where do you even get that information? All you get is anecdotal experiences "buy this brand, I have a washing machine from them for 20 years going fine" that just don't apply to your problem.

Sometimes I get lucky. I have a Mazda 2 with 16 years now. Very, very little issues, extremely reliable. But if I went to buy a new Mazda 2 model, other than my past good experience, would I even get something similar?

You can't trust online reviews. 1st because they are played by the companies, and 2nd, I've noticed that people came to expect so little that they give 5 stars to something even when they specifically write that something was a little off. It's like the all society has accepted that you will only be able to use what you bought for 2 years, and even so, you are expected to face some problems with it.

It's because buying things allows you to see the price of the thing, which means that will be the first and last thing you evaluate: quality is radically harder to quantify, so we resort to evaluating on the thing that comes in an easy quantity. Sellers are thus always incentivized to figure out how to make the price low, since basically all other factors can't be rigorously evaluated until after the sale...
By definition most things will be average. You just have to look around to see, for example, poorly designed websites that don't have even a minimum of CSS that would greatly improve readability. That's fine for most things. Most websites don't need to have great design, even if improving the design would be a trivial exercise.

Only a few industries are power law industries, where only the best dominate, but even in those industries there are different definitions of what "best" is. Take entertainment, for example. It's a power law market. Taylor Swift and K-pop band de jure make magnitudes more money than the tenth or hundredth best artist. Yet there are people who have never listened to either but will queue around the block for the latest Aphex Twin release. Similarly in written work, if you adopt a particular style, such as aesthetic of an unstyled web site, there are certain people that will resonate with (in this case, people who started using the Internet in the 90s or 2000s) and they will perhaps appreciate your work more for it.

Things that work well are hard to identify, it takes time and effort. Worse, companies are constantly changing products (either they stop making models or change the way they are made) so even if you successfully identify one thing the knowledge will rapidly become obsolete. So rapidly that you'll often not even have an opportunity to reuse that knowledge a single time.
One thing I’ll say is that I’ve _never_ seen a company properly understand a product, properly staff a product they purchase, or spend much time ensuring that their product is properly configured. But despite this, companies are shocked over and over again when the services or softwares they purchase do not live up to expectations.
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> where the notice falsely indicates that the person wasn't home and correctly indicates that, to get the package, the person has to go to some pick-up location to get the package.

Didn't know this was a universal experience with package delivery and the post office. I always thought it was just my national postal service that does this.

Once you realize that a metric the employee is tracked on is "on time delivery" and he has a button he can press that makes it report he did it right, you realize the incentives.

It starts by slipping a bit, and then more and more ...

Amazon et al are fighting back by requiring a photo on delivery now, but that has it's own limitations.

>Amazon et al are fighting back by requiring a photo on delivery now

And yet they are perfectly happy for that "photo of delivery" to be a picture of the box still in the truck.

They aren't fighting back. Fighting back would be removing the negative incentives that encourage drivers to fake metrics.

It makes things worse when they have unreasonable expectations, but there's always going to be an incentive to skip doing part of the work
A massive unmentioned bullet point in this rant is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence

Stuff is literally designed to stop working while also being financially unrealistic to even salvage and sell for parts.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with planned obsolescence.

There are exactly two alternatives to planned obsolescence. Planned infinity, which is an impossible engineering constraint. And unplanned obsolescence, which you know from temu products, which break after days of use, as they are designed with massive flaws.

If you are engineering a product you absolutely need to plan how long the product will last. The "alternatives" are significantly worse, especially for the consumer.

The Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 are planned for obsolescence, the parts they are made up of are designed to last a specific amount of time and use and are discarded afterwards. This is not some nefarious greedy management/engineering decision, but a reasonable tradeoff to make aviation possible, cost effective and safe.

Of course this is distinct from malicious engineering, which is the totally unrelated practice of building things which have specific negative properties. E.g. intentional design flaws.

That's not the definition of planned obsolescence
For many products I think it's incorrect to say they're designed to stop working after a maximum duration. That would be a very expensive thing to actually design and implement. You can test a component and understand its MTBF but it's much harder to design a "die after X days" without explicitly putting in way fuses that a burnt after some counter expires.

Instead it's more accurate to realize things are made to survive at least a minimum period of time. Components get engineered such their MTBF is longer than some mandated warranty period.

While it seems like only a semantic difference I've found thinking this way really helps me price things. If you look at an item and assume it's been engineered to have a MTBF just a bit longer than its warranty/support period you can calculate its amortized price, including an evaluation of extended warranties or service contracts.

This is instead of assuming I can buy something and it will last a decade. If something lasts me longer than my estimate that's awesome and I'll likely favor that brand on my next purchase.

This is nice , and a valuable way to take agency. But it does suck when the cost to manufacturer something that lasts 2x longer would be much less than 2x the price, but such things don't exist because of market incentives.
I'm not sure that belongs as a bullet point in an article about things working well. A lot of products built with planned obsolescence in mind work very well, until they don't.
Planned obsolescence is usually taken as a "bad thing" but it isn't necessarily - when considered as "there's no reason to spend money on making a part of this outlast the useful lifespan of the whole."

A cruise missile doesn't need to fix a bug that can only occur months after it has detonated, after all.

The real problem comes from the manufacturer's idea of "useful lifespan" and the customer's. For most people, an appliance's useful lifespan is "as long as it keeps working" and they don't care to ever upgrade it if it doesn't fail. Manufacturer's aren't incentivized to make those, however, and only accidentally do so (something designed to last 10 years is likely to last much longer on average).

I think what you call the 'real problem' is what people mean by planned obsolescence. It does not refer to any sort of tradeoffs, its specifically used to refer to times when the manufacturer sets their useful lifespan lower than the customer would want, and lower than the optimal price/lifespan ratio, so as to force more sales
Usually you can find the price/lifespan ratio you want - by paying more. What the customer wants is the cheapest item to last forever, but also be cheaper. There's obvious tradeoffs here, and the problem for everyone is the customers keep buying the cheapest ones.
From the Wikipedia link a few up:

"Limited lifespan is only a sign of planned obsolescence if the limit is made artificially short."

Its not always the consumers fault, its a market for lemons and paying more is by no means a guarantee of a better product. Especially when models are updated every few years , so keeping track becomes almost impossible.

Most examples have some sort of devils advocate reason (which I rarely believe) but some are extremely cut and dry: "For example, inkjet printer manufacturers employ smart chips in their ink cartridges to prevent them from being used after a certain threshold (number of pages, time, etc.), even though the cartridge may still contain usable ink or could be refilled (with ink toners, up to 50 percent of the toner cartridge is often still full)"

Coase's "Theory of the Firm" is the more serious, less straw-man exposition of these issues.

===

What’s New (If Anything)? While the article restates familiar Coasian concepts, it adds:

Modern Examples: It applies Coase’s framework to contemporary issues like software outsourcing, tech hiring, and cultural differences in trust and service delivery. Focus on Culture and "Unreasonable" Actors: It emphasizes how outliers (individuals or firms) push against systemic inefficiencies, which isn’t central to Coase’s theory. Bottom Line: The article revisits Coase’s foundational ideas without explicitly connecting to them. It’s less a groundbreaking insight and more a modern illustration of why transaction costs and organizational trust matter, consistent with Coase’s theory of the firm.

tl;dr information asymmetry. Didn't read the entire text, just skimmed through.

I think fundamentally the reason behind info asymmetry in our day and age is that products and services have become so much more complex that there's simply no time to independently assess the qualities such as reliability, durability, and a myriad of other variables in each particular case.

I think it's the complexity that is becoming our enemy number one, and too many variables when choosing a product as a consequence of that. Is the air conditioner too noisy? Does it require a WiFi connection and even a mobile app to function? People may omit some of these things even in their Amazon reviews.

And then some of the insanely complex products like mobile phones are practically impossible to evaluate objectively. I once stumbled upon an article that explains why Android requires roughly 2x RAM and a slightly larger battery compared to an equivalent iPhone in order to have the same efficiency and performance, supported by some benchmarks (blame garbage collector I guess?). How many technical people or experts are even aware of this?

My process of purchasing stuff comes down to two principles: (1) devices that Apple makes are generally OK to buy, they are less likely to disappoint; (2) for everything else: research, read reviews; the time spent on a product is proportionate to the price of the product.

Regarding smart phones, iPhones have had a bunch of features which they objectively do better, but these are never considered by reviewers or many buyers, who just look at paper specs and features. Just because these features are never articulated. Things such as user interface lag, long time usability, finger print sensor reliability. These were mayor problems with Android phones in the past (I have no idea how it is now), but since these features are very difficult to advertise, Apple focused their advertising in another direction.

And as a consequence people like hackers, Europeans, and such believe that the public are only getting iPhones because it's fashion and a "status symbol".

For me it went a bit deeper. Yes, there is always information asymmetry, but there is a world of difference between that and allowing outright lying and deception. In practice consumers are powerless against outright lying, so if Governments and organisations don't actively intervene it runs rampant. Apparently does that in most organisations. The article gave examples of CEO's that didn't allow it - Gordon More and Eric Schmidt. He claimed both ran very successful organisations as a result.

That reflects what I've seen in Australia. Unlike the USA, we have very strong local consumer protection laws. If a firm lies on the box, like saying a plan is unlimited when it is not, and a government will come knocking on their door. But in web market places like ebay the government can't control overseas sellers. Lying about the size of USB Flash drives on Ebay in particular became rampant. While Ebay is much cheaper than local brick and mortar sellers for just about everything, in the end I abandoned Ebay for USB Flash and other items where fraud was rampant. So did everyone else. The market for those things on EBay just collapsed - to the detriment of everyone - buyers and sellers alike. In the end EBay stepped in by siding with the consumer far more often when disputes arose, and those products returned.

The USA worships markets. Markets only work well when the buyer and seller are both well informed. Yet, the USA doesn't enforce that. To outsiders, it's weird.

Can-openers. 99% of them are utter trash. The one that works is a copy of a 60 year old model.
Best can opener is the classic Danish style. No moving parts at all, basically indestructible.

https://img1.etsystatic.com/169/1/10660606/il_570xN.12216186...

> The one that works is a copy of a 60 year old model.

This, we were going through one every 6-months or so, I finally bought the swing-a-way clone, the ez-duz-it for like $30 thanks to the /r/buyitforlife sub-reddit and it's been going strong for several years now.

You are me.
This is not just about information asymmetry. If you want to do something well, you have to find someone that truly cares about doing it well. Price is almost irrelevant, in fact, it may actually be a negative signal, because the best performers are often not motivated by money alone.

> So, in Korea, there's some service like Amazon where you can order an item and, an hour or two later, you'll hear a knock at your door. When you get to the door, you'll see an unlabeled box or bag and the item is in the unlabeled container. If you want to return the item, you "tell" the app that you want to return the item, put it back into its container, put it in front of your door, and they'll take it back. After seeing this shipping setup, which is wildly different from what you see in the U.S., he asked someone "how is it possible that they don't lose track of which box is which?". The answer he got was, "why would they lose track of which box is which?". His other stories have a similar feel, where he describes something quite alien, asks a local how things can work in this alien way, who can't imagine things working any other way and response with "why would X not work?"

This gem near the end of the article ties in with Marc Andreeson’s quote at the beginning of the article. The fact that he thinks hiring can’t be more efficient sounds to me like typical American head-in-sand insular thinking. He’s stuck in a cognitive frame, and in a particular system where people can’t imagine doing things differently, because they simply haven’t seen anything else. Try living somewhere else for an extended period of time, and you’ll realize that a lot of things you didn’t even think about could actually be better. The author gives the example of deliveries in Korea. I say the same about many things in Eastern Europe, including deliveries, payment systems, and just everyday services like dentists - a LOT of things work better than they do in the West, not because of monetary incentives, but because things are simply done differently here, and some things are done better.

>a LOT of things work better than they do in the West, not because of monetary incentives, but because things are simply done differently here, and some things are done better.

I'm not totally convinced though, because a lot of times when you investigate these "simply works better" claims, it's because the end users, either through culture or training, have been taught to accept bad service and not complain about it, which glosses over a lot of the real problems with some of these systems that we're told work better.

I'm directly comparing my personal experience as a consumer who grew up in Canada and then moved to Eastern Europe. There's a lot of stuff I didn't imagine could possibly "work better" but they do.
What are some examples you've personally experienced to work better?
Furniture. Instead of buying fixed mass-SKU items from IKEA or Amazon, it is common to order custom-made furniture in Ukraine. I once ordered an office table in Ukraine on Rozetka (Ukraine's version of Amazon) and was surprised when the seller reached out and asked me what height I want it, at no additional cost.

Dentists. For 10% of the cost you get the same (or usually better) service. I've been doing regular dental cleaning since I was a child.

Delivery. Ukraine's delivery service Nova Poshta Shopping in Ukraine allows me to order from almost anywhere in the world, including Amazon in the USA (they have shipping addresses and warehouses all over the world). I recently ordered a spare part in the US and a book in the UK from different sellers in those countries, and both items reached me within 10 days in Ukraine at less than the cost of shipping within the original country. Much better the poor experience of international shipping in the US and Canada.

Also another cool thing when ordering online in Ukraine is that the post office allows you try and return things in the post office itself. So you can order second-hand items on a market like eBay/Craigslist and you don't need to trust the seller. You can open the box, test to see if it the thing works, and send it back to seller if it's not to your satisfaction -- the post office itself takes escrow of the item for a minimal cost, and transfers money to the seller only if you got to try the item and are satisfied with it. This means you can easily buy second hand stuff online without organizing local meetup or needing to trust the seller.

ATMs. You can withdraw cash from most bank ATMs without even having a bank card on you, just by scanning a QR-code from your phone using the banking app.

Identity theft protection. All major dealings in the bank in Ukraine are photo-id'ed, i.e. the teller takes a picture of you when you make a request on your account. This really helps against identity theft, as a person with all your details would also have to fake your appearance to be able to open a mortgage or get credit.

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Market for lemons. Read it, explains everything.
Does this long-winded article manage to say anything more interesting than "maybe markets aren't actually 100% efficient, just like cows aren't actually spherical and of uniform density"?
there were a few good points at the bottom, but it could have all been summarized in a tweet
A lot of it comes down to the attitude that product quality (at least when it comes to a product's longevity aspect) is less and less valued because the low quality alternatives became so cheap. Or, as someone put it here once: "I don't want to have to think really hard about which trivial household item I want to spend the rest of my life with. I'd rather pick a random cheap one and then not feel too bad about replacing it, if necessary." It seems the negative externalities of this trend are not effectively priced at the moment.
I feel exactly the opposite. It's somewhat ironic as well, because socially I have and have had a reputation as someone who is both 'gadget obsessed' and 'bougie', but I don't think you can really be both. I have much much less 'stuff' than almost anyone I know, but almost everything I own I spent at least a few months researching before buying it and I plan to keep it as long as possible (and repair it if possible when it breaks). As a tech guy, the most obvious place this exists is in my desk setup, which currently (laptop and USB chargers not included) has an average age of around 5 years for everything on it. The oldest item I acquired 12 years ago and have no intention to ever replace if possible. The newest item was acquired as part of a move 2 years ago and pulls the average down.

It's a constant struggle though, because even when I find something of high quality (recently pants and shirts), this doesn't prevent the company from discontinuing the product or changing it. I've had to since switch pants and shirts, and rotate my wardrobe because of button and zipper failures on a brand I previously relied on heavily and recommended to others. They likely made this choice as a company to cut materials costs to not move their price point, but I would have happily absorbed a 20-30% price increase to maintain quality and not need to spend another 3 months figuring out which pants to start buying. Instead, they've lost a customer entirely that previously directed them additional customers. I wish consistency of quality was more of a thing, so even when you find something you always have to keep an eye on it.

Because people like Mark Andreeson only care about money. That guy is a one trick pony who just has money and part of the problem. He’s a pump and dump bozo no better than some banker on Wall Street
Because it's easy to lie about things that don't work well

half the time after we buy something, we're willing to lie about how well it works to ourselves

I swear a lot of people buy the cheapest thing knowing it won't last because they are addicted to shopping
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Don’t even get me started. We’re in wearable electronics, and somehow, we have to compete with devices priced under $15.

I know there are people who say, “Why pay more?” but honestly, at that price, you’re not just missing out on quality materials that have been thoroughly tested. You’re also missing proper support, reliable updates, and the peace of mind that comes with a product designed to actually last.

You should be glad that those products are steering away the worst customers from you.
> every social media company has kernel expertise as a core competency

It gets even more interesting when you're someone like Google who has both search and Android. There's a case for having two kernel teams so server teams aren't directly competing with mobile teams for resources.

Oh, the appendix part is such a poignant description of the US society. It is perfectly acceptable to be enriched at someone's cost because they should have known better

If it's not both parties benefitting from a transaction then let's name it straight - it's a scam.

Markets are only as efficient as their information is good. At this point, we should all have a very healthy appreciation for how warped the infosphere is for everyone, and that will of course have deep applications to the "efficiency" of the market.
Super enjoyed reading this post as usual.

I want to make a small leap. It takes extraordinary effort and resources to gather data, whether that's on your ETL SaaS, your health insurance, your congressional candidates' policies, or who's right about vaccines on Twitter. If "a market for lemons" is one "where information asymmetry means that buyers can't tell the difference between good products and 'lemons'", literally every market is a lemon market. Since we know the incentives there reward marketing over performance, we have to have some kind of countervailing force if we don't want that (I don't). Luu cites "unusually unresonable" people for companies here, in traditional markets those are regulators, on social media those are content moderators, in politics those are political parties and the press, etc.

Jump from here to wherever you want:

- unregulated markets quickly become back alleys stuffed with lemons

- (therefore) regulation greatly increases market efficiency

- competing definitions of "lemon" undermine the entire system

- regulator corruption is inevitable--successful systems account for this

- regulation does stack--intuitively one would think no one will buy "sure, the car regulators are corrupt, but the car regulator regulators are on the up and up, so it's fine", but synonyms for "car regulator regulators" include "FBI" and "journalists"

- if you wanted to succeed as a person of style over substance you have a strong incentive to assail the regulators

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If a product is straightforward, works well, has no lock-in, then customers don't spend on support or switch to a competitor. So don't make good products. That's the message for most of the SaaS world.
I no longer trust Amazon with near certainty to send me the product I ordered, so the efficiency of me obtaining things for which it is very important I get the product I ordered has gone way down.
1. people lack good taste . (aka bad aesthetics)

2. it's easier to agree (follow consensus) than disagree

3. (corollary to #2) Products are "sticky" and good selling products tend to sell well, despite their faults.

PS can we please discourage windbags
Your summaries are exactly what he doesn't want to write:

https://danluu.com/writing-non-advice/ - "confident, unqualified, statements, works (gets people readers). People like confidence. I view optimizing for other goals to be more important than optimizing for popularity. On length, I frequently cover topics that can't be covered in brief easily, or perhaps at all. One example of this is... other versions of the post that could ... probably be written in 1000 words. That post, written well, would have a wider audience, be more popular, but that's not what I want to write."

"I often have long, meandering, sentences, not for any particular literary purpose, but just because it reflects how I think. .. I try to have a structured argument and, when possible, evidence, with caveats for cases where the evidence isn't applicable. Although not presenting evidence makes something read cleanly, that's not my choice because I don't like that the reader basically has to take or leave it with respect to bare assertions, such as "what nerds like is the kind of town where people walk around smiling" and would prefer if readers know why I think something so they can agree or disagree based on the underlying reasons."

"I have an analogous opinion on style because I frequently want to discuss things in a level of detail and with a level of precision that precludes writing cleanly in the classic style. A specific, small, example is..."

"A more general thing is that Paul [Graham] writes about a lot of "big ideas" at a high level. That's something that's amenable to writing in a clean, simple style; what Paul calls an elegant style. But I'm not interested in writing about big ideas that are disconnected from low-level details and it's difficult to effectively discuss low-level details without writing in a style Paul would call inelegant."

Because making things that work well is not what modern markets are optimizing for. They're efficiently pursuing other agendas because they can get away with making things that work sorta.
Fabian Giesen's name jumped out at me on the page, not sure why but that was pretty surprising to me (he's normally writing about compression / graphics / maths).
in my opinion, the problem here is optimization. It is not difficult to make a courier service that will work like clockwork. It is difficult to make one where illiterate couriers will deliver parcels on time for a minimum wage, and the price will be comparable with competitors. The processes are simplified until the buyers of your product or service start suing you.
Physician, heal thyself

This page is almost impossible to read at default browser settings. A couple of lines of CSS would go a long way to make the site work well.

And yet when he took the CSS away, accessibility increased, engagement increased, and appreciation emails increased.

Citations: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42458683

And here I thought here would take about how new models come out so frequently that any information about long-term quality is long obsolete.
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A notable exception to the trend of poor/unknown quality in consumer products is the outdoor product market. I buy a lot of gear for skiing, canyoneering, climbing, cycling, backpacking, and other sports. In these sports, the safety and functionality of gear is critical. And you spend enough time using and evaluating the gear that many (if not most) users become experts. Perhaps this type of market is the exception that proves the rule.
Because of "profitabilism", that's what. Profit margin over all--including, of course, product quality.
Why is it so hard to format text that is readable well?

Reading it on UHD monitor is almost impossible with full width of paragraphs.

It's ironic given the amount of effort that was invested in writing that post with absolutely zero effort put into making it readable.
> absolutely zero effort put into making it readable.

Not true on several fronts:

https://danluu.com/slow-device/ - "I certainly wouldn't claim that the design on this site is optimal. I just removed the CSS from the most popular blogging platform for programmers at the time because that CSS seemed objectively bad for people with low-end connections and, as a side effect, got more traffic and engagement overall"

and

"I get quite a bit of hate mail about the styling on this page .. I know people who run sites that are complex enough that they're unusable by a significant fraction of people in the world. How come people are so incensed about the styling of this site and, proportionally, basically don't care at all that the web is unusable for so many people?"

and "On the data, when I switched from Octopress styling (at the time, the most popular styling for programming bloggers) to the current styling, I got what appeared to be a causal increase in traffic and engagement, so it appears that not only do people who write me appreciation mail about the styling like the styling, the overall feeling of people who don't write to me appears to be that the site is fine and apparently more appealing than standard programmer blog styling."

https://danluu.com/octopress-speedup/ - "Speeding up this site by 50x" - "I found it too hard to futz around with trimming down the massive CSS file that comes with Octopress, so I removed all of the CSS and then added a few lines to allow for a nav bar. This makes almost no difference on the desktop benchmark above, but it's a noticable improvement for slow connections"

https://danluu.com/writing-non-advice/ - "The "improve writing" goal is because I found my writing annoyingly awkward and wanted to fix that. I frequently wrote sentences or paragraphs that seemed clunky to me .. so I hired a professional editor whose writing I respect with the instruction "My writing is clunky and awkward and I'd like to fix it. I don't really care about spelling and grammar issues. Can you edit my writing with that in mind?". I got detailed feedback on a lot of my posts. I tried to fix the issues brought up in the feedback but, more importantly, tried to write my next post without it having the same or other previously mentioned issues. I can be a bit of a slow learner, so it sometimes took a few posts to iron out an issue but, over time, my writing improved a lot."

Whatever reason to skip text formatting does not make it more readable.
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:966/1*wVlHuoz3JmTS-uJk...

"It's less readable"

"All the data I have shows it's more readable to more people on more devices, and I get more feedback saying it is"

"whatever, no it isn't"

Oddly enough it's fine on mobile. It's only on the desktop where it's impossible to read without adding custom CSS.
PSA: your browser window is resizable.
Reader view is more comfortable for this. However a little care for formating text would make content both more accessible and competent.
The first thing I did when I loaded this page was add 3 css rules (margin, line height, font size). Like I get purity, but c'mon.
Quality is multidimensional. Local maxima exist in any non-trivial optimization process.
Better recurring revenue if you need to say buy a new iPhone every year
This is an explicit anti-example in the article:

> For example, if you observe that it's silly for people to move from iPhones to Android phones because they think that Apple is engaging in nefarious planned obsolescence when Android devices generally become obsolete more quickly, due to a combination of iPhones getting updates for longer and iPhones being faster at every price point they compete at, allowing the phone to be used on bloated sites for longer, you can't really make money off of this observation.

What an excellent written article. Thanks Dan Luu!
Generally speaking, if a corporation is controlled by the finance and sales people, instead of buy the engineering people, the products it makes will suffer from things like planned obsolescence. Monopolistic control of markets makes this worse, as there's little if any competition to turn to. Boeing is the poster child for this problem in the USA - Boeing relied on monopolistic control of the airplane market, and cut R & D to increase shareholder and executive profits, and was then blindsided by Airbus developments in fuel efficiency, and their response was to try to rush a low-cost development project with disastrous results.

Investment capitalism naturally gravitates towards such behavior; this is why the most disastrous thing SpaceX (compare to Boeing) could do is go public and let big shareholder conglomerates like Vanguard/Blackrock/StateStreet/FMR etc. control the makeup of the corporate board and thus, engineering decisions.

One strategy is after you buy reinforce possible failure points
Cause it’s even harder to build them
> “Find the dependencies — and eliminate them.” When you're working on a really, really good team with great programmers, everybody else's code, frankly, is bug-infested garbage, and nobody else knows how to ship on time.

Does anyone have a feeling that this has never been further from the truth?

In trading there is an idea called the "hurdle" which is a measure of inefficiency that any trade has to be above in order to actually make a profit. E.g. if the bid/ask spread for gold chains or options is 2% then any arbitrage has to be better than 2%.

For companies this hurdle rate is from political friction. Any improvement that doesn't provide benefits in excess of the political friction generated doesn't get implemented.

And in large institutions this friction can be very high. E.g. planes not crashing for Boeing or kids-not-being-shot for the U.S. seem like obvious things-to-fix.

But they generate so much destabilizing political friction that they just can't.

no bugs or planned obsolescence --> "no business"
a guess before having read it: corporate greed?
Because it’s all made in china and the Chinese just copy crap and don’t work it. Such is the communist economy. Suck it, libs, that’s your utopia.
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Doesn't everyone know and acknowledge that in a capitalist system, there is more money to be made when products have a finite operational window? It's a lot more profitable to sell you a phone/fridge/car every few years than it is to make one that lasts 10, 15, 20 years...
  • fHr
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  • 4 days ago
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we need to enshitify our supply chains with grifters
[dead]
Reply: things don't work well for the same reason this very post is so hard to read wall of text.

I find it deeply ironic that the author can't even produce readable text, while complaining about other, much more complex tasks not working.

The author refuses to take minimal, common-sense measures to make the text more readable.

No, the reason is because there are different tradeoffs, and things that work well often trade off other things.

For instance, Dan is one of the best writers for illustrating a general point with dozens of rapid fire small examples. This gives the point credibility in a way that a writer who might craft an easier-to-digest narrative doesn't have, but can be tiresome for those don't like the style.

  • f1shy
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  • 5 days ago
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On the other hand, you can set read mode, and because the page is so basic, it works perfectly...
Exactly.

It's not a wall of text, it's a line of text.

Although it is marked up according to HTML guidelines.

Technically speaking that's why it also qualifies as a single line of HTML.

Similar to a single line (per paragraph) of plain text which can then be pasted into any email window, for better right-nonjustification than average.

A single line of HTML will justify according to any user's browser default settings, so you always get what you want in that regard. And this one is so generic that it more closely resembles a clearly typewritten page or newspaper column, depending on how wide you size your browser combined with its default font size. Like it's supposed to do.

It's not "quite" a novel, but truly does fit the classic "short-story" layout.

Basically about as close as you get to the most readable professionally typeset classic literature. The only thing missing is the traditional indentation to start each paragraph, but it's worth it to retain universality on the web since tabs are so unreliable in browsers.

There's just a lot there, almost 52kb of useful text content which takes up the vast majority of this huge 58kb web page.

On this page I don't think he is trying to convince people that he is "a man of few words".

With the same readily-available one-line of content though, maybe there is a text connoisseur who is enough of an expert to get it down way below 58kb with far better readability on a wider variety of default browsers too. That's an example I'd like to see.

Will AI change this? If AI can assess who is good for us, then we can get somewhere
  • bmitc
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  • 5 days ago
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It will undoubtedly make it worse. Products don't work well because of the lack of understanding and time spent on the products. "AI" only widens the gap and increases lack of understanding.
It will make everything even more disposable than it is today. Products will be cheap and they will last a few months before breaking.
I mean, maybe? Why can’t you tell us? Any opinion on it?

Sorry about the metacommentary but it’s a bit tiring with every third thread having the same stock question: Is this made irrelevant by AI?/Does AI [magically] solve this problem?

They all at the same time strongly hint that yes, AI will <panacea>. But they still don’t take any stance or make any contribution themselves!

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  • 5 days ago
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Two years ago, this comment would have asked whether Blockchain will change this.

I wonder what it'll say two years from now.