It’s always seemed like a little bit of a race to cash out as quickly as possible by promising the world, selling, then letting everyone else deal with the fallout but now it seems like everyone is seeing the door about to close in front of them so they need to extract every ounce of productivity from those below them to get out while they still can.
I don’t want to be treated like a component in someone’s vehicle that you just swap out for a new one after you’ve burned it out which is what my entire job feels like more than ever.
I’m not excited about “AI” and I think while useful to some extent it will do more harm than good as our monkey brains scramble to make sense of what it is and fight each other for control over it. Does anyone else feel like this? What are the alternatives for someone who still likes programming but doesn’t want to be doing it professionally anymore if it means I’m going to have to be harnessed to the front of the dog sled while my boss screams “mush!”
Regardless of the industry, the workers are a fungible resource to business.
If you don't want to be an easily replaceable cog in the machine, then you need to develop domain expertise which allows you to solve high value problems. You then might become a gold-plated cog in the machine.
I would probably do it if I am young, though.
We didn't really care when it was factory workers, or payroll clerks, or switchboard operators. But now that it's going after programmers, now we care.
The good news is that there are a bunch of other jobs still left. And for a long time yet there are still lots of IT jobs that are safe.
To be fair, low-skill programming jobs have been replaced for years. Lots of them outsourced offshore. (Does it matter if your job goes to AI or a Bengali?). But today's systems are huge, and complex, and require a lot more than what AI can do (impressive as that is.)
Frankly, if you work at a place, and you look around the room, and all you see are cogs in the machine, and you dont want to be a cog, then you're already in the wrong place.
Watching tech people slowly realize they aren't an elite class of philosopher kings but just labor has been amusing. Wish they could have come around to class consciousness before they ruined the world but I suppose better late than never.
ai is the end of all knowledge work. phd level intelligence and reasoning is cheap and fast. its so good its economically non viable to NOT leverage it, and then it will be non viable to hire humans instead of orchestating AI. As we approach AGI any person sharp with ai tools and self motivated and with domain knowledge will replace entire teams. I expect huge big tech layoffs. The problem lingers is that no matter if ai cant do your job, it can do the job of a hell lot of people, and if all that people are unemployed and in gigs eventually the economy will collapse, doesn't matter if you are a writer or a HVAC, and see robots if you are the last. The issue isn’t just job loss, but the velocity of change. Capitalism isn’t designed for near-instantaneous obsolescence. Government wont do shit because this is a gazillion dollar industry and also they are still figuring out what's the internet. Jobs wont be created at the same pace they are destroyed, and AI will be able to take on those roles too. Companies will follow what shopify and duolingo did. even the pope is concerned, hence its name. AI will disrupt ALL industries. hell, even ai art is objectively better and cheaper than human art.
This is my opinion. Feel free to discuss or whatever.
Now, it seems your concerns are anchored on employment and not anything regarding technology. I have been laid off during my career and survived many layoffs. The first round of layoffs I experienced in the big brand web world was the same year I received a negative review. I kept my job while other highly rated people were pushed out the door.
Here is my learning about career sustainability:
* If you don't like what you do then all you are doing is funding a life style. If you both hate what you do AND do not have a shit ton of personal disposable income sitting in a bank account after 5 years its not worth it. Tell them to fuck off, take a hit to your income/lifestyle and do something else. You will thank me later. This one piece of advice will add years to your life.
* If you want to have a job that withstands all layoffs (aside from the business completely folding) do what is most needed. In my case I was a first year front end developer at Travelocity back in 2008 when the market crashed and before massive frameworks did your job for you. They couldn't hire front end developers to save their life. Its just like now in that most of the candidates were extremely childish or extremely incompetent, but now businesses looks the other way while colossal frameworks and tool sets do most of the work. I kept my job when others didn't because I was more valuable to the business, even with a shit annual review, than people who were cherished employees.
* If you want to be taken seriously on the job do only two things well: 1) guard your time and 2) take care of people. Be ruthless about these two things. If you spend 4 hours a week actually doing your job and the coworker next to you spends 40 hours a week doing their job you are 10x more valuable. This is counter-intuitive because they are working hard you aren't doing shit. Hard work is not valued. Delivery is valued. If you want hard work to be valued then get out of IT and becoming an independent contractor of a trade skill. If you are a narcissist your more competent peers will see through your bullshit. Seriously, learn to take care of people.
* If you want to get promoted do only three things well: 1) deliver what your boss asks of you, 2) measure things, and 3) demonstrate superior communication and organizational skills. I have seen this work in the corporate world and I have heard these exact things more than once from brigadier generals in the US Army.
Since forever I remember reading in the news that company XYZ 'let go' # thousands of employees in countries A, B, and from departments C, D.
I was working in a bank (one of the many) back in the late 00s and one morning the (open space) office was dead silent. It use to have 200+ people but that day it had 20+.
Apparently "Management" saw something coming (it was the 2008 crisis) and decided to cut costs asap, and the first to go out were the ~200 contractors (back then there was no 'remote' work, so everyone was in the office). I knew one of them, we grew up in the same neighborhood, and he was super angry because they asked them to simply hand over their laptops and walk out. 1 minute notice, and paid them in the end of the month for the rest of the month and that was that.
At _that_ moment I realized that shit doesn't just happens to others on the news, it happens to all of us, it's not an IF it will happen to you/me/anyone, it is a WHEN it will happen.
Brace yourselves, winter is coming.